Nottingham Forest v Arsenal

16th0–11st

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Nottingham Forest		Arsenal
14	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	1
8	Corners	6
14	Fouls	8
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
224	Passes	634
26%	Possession %	74%
0.94	xG	1.16

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Arsenal 46%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.05 – 1.45

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Nottingham Forest	26.6%	3.77	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+9.9
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.58	3.95 Dafabet	25.3%	+2.6
Match result	Arsenal	45.5%	2.20	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-15.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.9%	1.39	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.1%	3.55	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.4%	2.20	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-6.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.6%	1.83	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.1%	4.16	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-5.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.9%	1.32	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.3%	1.99	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.7%	2.01	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-1.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Arsenal favoured against Nottingham Forest

Our model makes Nottingham Forest 27% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Arsenal at 46%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Nottingham Forest against 1.45 for Arsenal — a clear edge to Arsenal on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-0 9%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for Nottingham Forest and Arsenal
Nottingham Forest		Arsenal
10	Played	10
2-3-5	W-D-L	9-0-1
0.90	Pts / game	2.70
0.90	Goals for / game	1.50
1.30	Goals against / game	0.50
40%	Over 2.5	40%
50%	BTTS	20%
10%	Clean sheets	70%
50%	Failed to score	10%
1-1-3	Home record	5-0-0
1-2-2	Away record	4-0-1
W1	Streak	W5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nottingham Forest · Arsenal

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.5	Shots	14.0
3.7	Shots on target	4.3
5.7	Corners	6.3
2.17	Cards	1.33
12.8	Fouls	9.7
46	Possession %	60
1.54	xG	1.56
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.7	Shots	12.3
3.2	Shots on target	2.8
3.8	Corners	5.2
0.83	Cards	3.50
8.5	Fouls	15.5
54	Possession %	40
1.14	xG	0.74
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nottingham Forest	Metric	Arsenal
0.80	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
1.56	Expected goals (xG)	2.06 (better)
	Big chances
3.60	Shots on target	5.40 (better)
15.60 (better)	Total shots	14.60
	Touches in opp. box
3.40	Corners	3.80 (better)
46.0	Possession %	58.2 (better)
384	Passes	520 (better)
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	11.60 (better)
1.80 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Nottingham Forest wins: 0
Draws: 1
Arsenal wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal0–12026-10-18
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal0–02026-01-17
Arsenal v Nottingham Forest3–02025-09-13

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5