Leeds v Manchester United

9th1–118th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Leeds		Manchester United
12	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
2	Corners	3
16	Fouls	5
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
532	Passes	354
61%	Possession %	39%
1.48	xG	0.93

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Manchester United 41%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.40 – 1.56

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Leeds	33.4%	2.99	2.55 Bet365	39.2%	-5.8
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.88	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-0.9
Match result	Manchester United	40.8%	2.45	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+6.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.1%	1.25	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	+0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.9%	5.02	4.60 BetVictor	21.7%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.7%	1.76	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.3%	2.31	2.32 Betano	43.1%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.3%	2.92	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	+4.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.7%	1.52	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.1%	1.66	1.70 William Hill	58.8%	+1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.9%	2.51	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Manchester United favoured against Leeds

Our model makes Leeds 33% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Manchester United at 41%. The goal projection is 1.40 for Leeds against 1.56 for Manchester United — a slight edge to Manchester United on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Leeds and Manchester United
Leeds		Manchester United
10	Played	10
3-5-2	W-D-L	1-5-4
1.40	Pts / game	0.80
1.00	Goals for / game	1.40
0.80	Goals against / game	1.90
20%	Over 2.5	40%
50%	BTTS	60%
40%	Clean sheets	0%
30%	Failed to score	40%
2-3-0	Home record	1-2-2
1-2-2	Away record	0-3-2
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leeds · Manchester United

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	18.2
3.9	Shots on target	5.3
4.3	Corners	6.7
2.14	Cards	2.70
13.4	Fouls	12.3
51	Possession %	50
1.31	xG	1.57
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.1	Shots	12.8
4.4	Shots on target	5.7
3.7	Corners	3.7
2.00	Cards	2.03
11.4	Fouls	12.5
49	Possession %	50
1.22	xG	2.11
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leeds	Metric	Manchester United
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.66 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.16
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	5.40 (better)
13.40	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	6.80 (better)
45.4	Possession %	51.6 (better)
392	Passes	542 (better)
	Tackles
12.80	Fouls	10.40 (better)
2.20	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Leeds wins: 1
Draws: 2
Manchester United wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 100%

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5