Everton v Chelsea

6th0–25th

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Everton		Chelsea
6	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	7
5	Corners	7
8	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	4
—	Red cards	—
4	Offsides	1
408	Passes	463
47%	Possession %	53%
0.43	xG	1.47

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 71%

Model pick: Chelsea 45%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.70 – 2.03

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Everton	32.6%	3.07	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	+1.8
Match result	Draw	22.1%	4.53	3.80 Bet365	26.3%	-4.2
Match result	Chelsea	45.3%	2.21	2.27 Betano	44.1%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.0%	1.12	1.22 Betano	82.0%	+7.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.0%	9.13	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	-9.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.9%	1.39	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+12.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	28.1%	3.56	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	-15.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	51.2%	1.96	2.65 Betano	37.7%	+13.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	48.8%	2.05	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-16.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	71.4%	1.40	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+7.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	28.6%	3.50	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-10.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Chelsea favoured against Everton

Our model makes Everton 33% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Chelsea at 45%. The goal projection is 1.70 for Everton against 2.03 for Chelsea — a clear edge to Chelsea on expected output. A combined 3.73 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Everton and Chelsea
Everton		Chelsea
10	Played	10
4-4-2	W-D-L	5-1-4
1.60	Pts / game	1.60
1.20	Goals for / game	1.90
1.00	Goals against / game	1.60
30%	Over 2.5	60%
40%	BTTS	50%
40%	Clean sheets	20%
30%	Failed to score	30%
3-1-1	Home record	3-1-1
1-3-1	Away record	2-0-3
W2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Everton · Chelsea

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	12.7
4.8	Shots on target	5.5
4.2	Corners	5.7
1.83	Cards	2.03
8.2	Fouls	9.8
50	Possession %	52
1.60	xG	1.29
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	10.7
4.3	Shots on target	4.3
6.0	Corners	5.2
2.57	Cards	3.70
12.0	Fouls	14.0
50	Possession %	48
1.48	xG	1.30
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Everton	Metric	Chelsea
1.00	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
1.55 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.27
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
16.00 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.40	Corners	6.40 (better)
47.6	Possession %	49.6 (better)
452 (better)	Passes	437
	Tackles
9.60	Fouls	8.40 (better)
1.60	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Everton wins: 1
Draws: 0
Chelsea wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Everton v Chelsea0–22026-10-17
Everton v Chelsea3–02026-03-21
Chelsea v Everton2–02025-12-13

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5