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Premier League predictions: matchweek 7 (17–19 October 2026)
Every Premier League match in matchweek 7 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Premier League, matchweek 7: ten matches, played across 17–19 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Manchester City, 67% to beat Ipswich at home; the most evenly balanced game is Tottenham v Coventry (Tottenham 35%, draw 27%, Coventry 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Everton v Chelsea, at 3.73; the tightest looks Fulham v Hull City, at 2.22.
Going into the round, Manchester City lead on 18 points, three points clear of Arsenal, with Brighton third on 13. The bottom three are Bournemouth (3), Tottenham (3), Fulham (2).
The numbers this season
Premier League has averaged 2.95 goals a game over 60 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 38% of matches, 32% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Everton v ChelseaSat 17 Oct, 12:30
Our model makes Everton 33%, the draw 22% and Chelsea 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%. Everton are 5th on 10 points from 6; Chelsea are 6th on 10 points from 6. Everton are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws); Chelsea have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Everton wins, draws and Chelsea wins.
Brentford v LiverpoolSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Brentford 42%, the draw 25% and Liverpool 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Brentford are 4th on 10 points from 6; Liverpool are 9th on 9 points from 6. Brentford are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws); Liverpool have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Fulham v Hull CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Fulham 40%, the draw 30% and Hull City 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.22 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 62%. Fulham are 20th on 2 points from 6; Hull City are 8th on 9 points from 6. Fulham are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Hull City have won one of their last five.
Manchester City v IpswichSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Manchester City 67%, the draw 19% and Ipswich 14%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Manchester City to win at 67%. Manchester City are 1st on 18 points from 6; Ipswich are 10th on 9 points from 6. Manchester City have won all of their last five; Ipswich have won two of their last five.
Newcastle v Aston VillaSat 17 Oct, 17:30
Our model makes Newcastle 35%, the draw 23% and Aston Villa 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Newcastle are 11th on 8 points from 6; Aston Villa are 16th on 5 points from 6. Newcastle have won two of their last five; Aston Villa have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.
Bournemouth v SunderlandSun 18 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Bournemouth 46%, the draw 27% and Sunderland 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Bournemouth to win at 46%. Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points from 6; Sunderland are 17th on 4 points from 6. Bournemouth are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Sunderland have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Brighton v Crystal PalaceSun 18 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Brighton 53%, the draw 25% and Crystal Palace 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Brighton to win at 53%. Brighton are 3rd on 13 points from 6; Crystal Palace are 12th on 7 points from 6. Brighton have won three of their last five; Crystal Palace have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Leeds v Manchester UnitedSun 18 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Leeds 33%, the draw 26% and Manchester United 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Leeds are 7th on 9 points from 6; Manchester United are 13th on 6 points from 6. Leeds have won one of their last five; Manchester United have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Nottingham Forest v ArsenalSun 18 Oct, 16:30
Our model makes Nottingham Forest 27%, the draw 28% and Arsenal 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is Arsenal to win at 46%. Nottingham Forest are 15th on 5 points from 6; Arsenal are 2nd on 15 points from 6. Nottingham Forest have won one of their last five; Arsenal have won four of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Tottenham v CoventryMon 19 Oct, 20:00
Our model makes Tottenham 35%, the draw 27% and Coventry 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Tottenham are 19th on 3 points from 6; Coventry are 14th on 6 points from 6. Tottenham are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Coventry have won two of their last five.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published one pick on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
Premier League10Prediction
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Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.