Fulham v Hull City

15th1–013th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fulham		Hull City
18	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	0
10	Corners	2
13	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
752	Passes	225
76%	Possession %	24%
1.48	xG	0.18

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 38%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Fulham 40%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.01

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Fulham	40.2%	2.49	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-17.0
Match result	Draw	30.1%	3.33	4.05 Betano	24.7%	+5.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	61.6%	1.62	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+15.1
Match result	Hull City	29.8%	3.36	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	65.8%	1.52	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-14.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	34.2%	2.92	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+11.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	38.4%	2.61	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-17.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.5%	5.39	2.87 Betano	34.8%	-16.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.5%	1.23	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+12.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.3%	2.21	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-11.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.7%	1.83	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+9.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fulham favoured against Hull City

Our model makes Fulham 40% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Hull City at 30%. The goal projection is 1.22 for Fulham against 1.01 for Hull City — a slight edge to Fulham on expected output. A combined 2.22 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Fulham and Hull City
Fulham		Hull City
10	Played	10
2-4-4	W-D-L	2-5-3
1.00	Pts / game	1.10
1.00	Goals for / game	1.10
1.20	Goals against / game	1.10
30%	Over 2.5	40%
60%	BTTS	50%
30%	Clean sheets	30%
20%	Failed to score	30%
1-2-2	Home record	1-4-0
1-2-2	Away record	1-1-3
D2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fulham · Hull City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	10.7
5.0	Shots on target	2.7
5.7	Corners	5.2
2.53	Cards	2.67
10.7	Fouls	12.3
58	Possession %	36
1.42	xG	1.03
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	15.8
3.5	Shots on target	6.2
5.2	Corners	6.0
1.17	Cards	1.37
8.8	Fouls	8.0
42	Possession %	64
1.09	xG	1.45
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fulham	Metric	Hull City
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.60 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.07
	Big chances
4.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
14.00 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.20	Corners	5.60 (better)
53.6 (better)	Possession %	35.6
556 (better)	Passes	309
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	11.40
1.00	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	3.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fulham wins: 1
Draws: 0
Hull City wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Fulham v Hull City1–02026-10-17

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5