Croatia
Croatian HNL predictions
Every Croatian HNL match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Croatian HNL page.
3 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is HNK Hajduk Split, 54% against NK Osijek away; the most evenly balanced game is Istra 1961 v HNK Rijeka (Istra 1961 34%, draw 28%, HNK Rijeka 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is NK Varazdin v Dinamo Zagreb, at 3.01.
Every match, one prediction
Today
Croatian HNL1Most likely prediction
Match by match
Istra 1961 v HNK RijekaSat 7 Nov, 17:00
Our model makes Istra 1961 34%, the draw 28% and HNK Rijeka 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is HNK Rijeka to win at 38%. Istra 1961 are 6th on 16 points from 12; HNK Rijeka are 5th on 18 points from 11. Istra 1961 have won two of their last five; HNK Rijeka have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last five meetings were drawn.
NK Osijek v HNK Hajduk SplitSun 8 Nov, 14:00
Our model makes NK Osijek 22%, the draw 25% and HNK Hajduk Split 54%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is HNK Hajduk Split to win at 54%. NK Osijek are 2nd on 20 points from 12; HNK Hajduk Split are 1st on 26 points from 12. NK Osijek have won one of their last five; HNK Hajduk Split have won three of their last five. HNK Hajduk Split have won four of the sides' last five meetings.
NK Varazdin v Dinamo ZagrebSun 8 Nov, 17:00
Our model makes NK Varazdin 28%, the draw 25% and Dinamo Zagreb 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Dinamo Zagreb to win at 48%. NK Varazdin are 4th on 19 points from 12; Dinamo Zagreb are 3rd on 19 points from 10. NK Varazdin have won one of their last five; Dinamo Zagreb have won three of their last five. Dinamo Zagreb have won four of the sides' last five meetings.
The numbers this season
Croatian HNL has averaged 3.08 goals a game over 60 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 62% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 50% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Croatian HNL predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Croatian HNL predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Croatian HNL?
- 50% of matches this season, over 60 played, with 20% drawn and 30% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.08 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 62%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.