Spain
La Liga predictions
Every La Liga match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the La Liga page.
20 matches in the next 14 days, 11 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Real Madrid, 72% against Sevilla at home; the most evenly balanced game is Getafe v Rayo Vallecano (Getafe 36%, draw 31%, Rayo Vallecano 33%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Osasuna v Racing Santander, at 3.89.
Every match, one prediction
Today
La Liga1Prediction
Tomorrow
La Liga4Prediction
Sun 18 Oct
La Liga4Prediction
Mon 19 Oct
Wed 21 Oct
Fri 23 Oct
La Liga1PredictionSat 24 Oct
La Liga4PredictionSun 25 Oct
La Liga4Prediction4 more member picks on these La Liga matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →
Match by match
Deportivo La Coruna v LevanteFri 16 Oct, 20:00
Our model makes Deportivo La Coruna 53%, the draw 24% and Levante 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.90 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Deportivo La Coruna to win at 53%. Deportivo La Coruna are 8th on 10 points from 8; Levante are 17th on 6 points from 7. Deportivo La Coruna have won one of their last five; Levante have won one of their last five.
Espanyol v Atletico MadridSat 17 Oct, 13:00
Our model makes Espanyol 26%, the draw 25% and Atletico Madrid 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Atletico Madrid to win at 49%. Espanyol are 12th on 8 points from 8; Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 19 points from 8. Espanyol have won one of their last five; Atletico Madrid have won four of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Espanyol wins, draws and Atletico Madrid wins.
Villarreal v ElcheSat 17 Oct, 15:15
Our model makes Villarreal 57%, the draw 20% and Elche 22%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 71%. Villarreal are 11th on 8 points from 8; Elche are 18th on 6 points from 8. Villarreal have won two of their last five; Elche have won one of their last five. Villarreal have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Real Betis v BarcelonaSat 17 Oct, 17:30
Our model makes Real Betis 24%, the draw 22% and Barcelona 55%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Barcelona to win at 55%. Real Betis are 3rd on 19 points from 8; Barcelona are 1st on 24 points from 8. Real Betis are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Barcelona have won all of their last five. Barcelona have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Valencia v Athletic ClubSat 17 Oct, 20:00
Our model makes Valencia 41%, the draw 28% and Athletic Club 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Valencia to win at 41%. Valencia are 19th on 5 points from 8; Athletic Club are 10th on 8 points from 6. Valencia have won one of their last five; Athletic Club have won two of their last five. Valencia have won two of the sides' last three meetings.
Osasuna v Racing SantanderSun 18 Oct, 13:00
Our model makes Osasuna 42%, the draw 22% and Racing Santander 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (8%), 3.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 75%. Osasuna are 16th on 8 points from 8; Racing Santander are 15th on 8 points from 8. Osasuna are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Racing Santander have won one of their last five.
Celta Vigo v AlavesSun 18 Oct, 15:15
Our model makes Celta Vigo 44%, the draw 27% and Alaves 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Celta Vigo to win at 44%. Celta Vigo are 9th on 8 points from 8; Alaves are 7th on 11 points from 8. Celta Vigo are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws); Alaves have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Celta Vigo wins, draws and Alaves wins.
Malaga v Real SociedadSun 18 Oct, 17:30
Our model makes Malaga 45%, the draw 24% and Real Sociedad 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. Malaga are 20th on 4 points from 8; Real Sociedad are 6th on 13 points from 8. Malaga are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Real Sociedad have won three of their last five.
Real Madrid v SevillaSun 18 Oct, 20:00
Our model makes Real Madrid 72%, the draw 17% and Sevilla 11%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 3.34 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Real Madrid to win at 72%. Real Madrid are 4th on 18 points from 8; Sevilla are 5th on 14 points from 8. Real Madrid have won three of their last five; Sevilla have won two of their last five. Real Madrid have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Getafe v Rayo VallecanoMon 19 Oct, 20:00
Our model makes Getafe 36%, the draw 31% and Rayo Vallecano 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.16 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is under 3.5 goals at 83%. Getafe are 14th on 8 points from 8; Rayo Vallecano are 13th on 8 points from 7. Getafe have won one of their last five; Rayo Vallecano have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Levante v Athletic ClubWed 21 Oct, 19:00
Our model makes Levante 41%, the draw 26% and Athletic Club 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Levante are 17th on 6 points from 7; Athletic Club are 10th on 8 points from 6. Levante have won one of their last five; Athletic Club have won two of their last five. Athletic Club have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
The numbers this season
La Liga has averaged 3.09 goals a game over 78 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 45% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are La Liga predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are La Liga predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in La Liga?
- 45% of matches this season, over 78 played, with 27% drawn and 28% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.09 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 58%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.
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