Real Madrid v Sevilla

2nd4–16th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Real Madrid		Sevilla
15	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	5
1	Corners	2
10	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
667	Passes	349
65%	Possession %	35%
2.36	xG	0.81

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Real Madrid 72%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 2.46 – 0.88

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Real Madrid	71.6%	1.40	1.28 Dafabet	78.1%	-6.5
Match result	Draw	17.4%	5.74	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+3.1
Match result	Sevilla	11.0%	9.13	12.00 BetVictor	8.3%	+2.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.1%	1.18	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-2.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.9%	6.69	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.8%	1.54	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.2%	2.84	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.8%	2.34	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.2%	1.75	1.90 Betano	52.6%	+4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.9%	1.86	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.1%	2.17	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-5.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Real Madrid favoured against Sevilla

Our model makes Real Madrid 72% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 17% and Sevilla at 11%. The goal projection is 2.46 for Real Madrid against 0.88 for Sevilla — a commanding edge to Real Madrid on expected output. A combined 3.34 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Real Madrid is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 28% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 3-0 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-1 8%

This season

Season records for Real Madrid and Sevilla
Real Madrid		Sevilla
12	Played	12
10-0-2	W-D-L	5-3-4
2.50	Pts / game	1.50
2.58	Goals for / game	1.42
0.83	Goals against / game	1.58
83%	Over 2.5	58%
58%	BTTS	67%
33%	Clean sheets	33%
8%	Failed to score	8%
5-0-0	Home record	3-1-2
5-0-2	Away record	2-2-2
W5	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Real Madrid · Sevilla

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	12.7
6.0	Shots on target	4.7
4.7	Corners	3.3
2.76	Cards	2.76
8.1	Fouls	14.3
51	Possession %	45
2.22	xG	1.15
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.4	Shots	13.3
4.3	Shots on target	5.0
3.1	Corners	3.3
2.88	Cards	1.88
16.9	Fouls	12.6
49	Possession %	55
1.02	xG	1.57
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Madrid	Metric	Sevilla
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
2.00 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.65
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
15.80 (better)	Total shots	9.25
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	3.75
44.2 (better)	Possession %	42.0
425 (better)	Passes	346
	Tackles
8.60 (better)	Fouls	11.75
2.60 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.67	Red cards	0.50 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Real Madrid wins: 3
Draws: 0
Sevilla wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Real Madrid v Sevilla4–12026-10-18
Sevilla v Real Madrid0–12026-05-17
Real Madrid v Sevilla2–02025-12-20

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5