Valencia v Athletic Club

19th0–07th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Valencia		Athletic Club
16	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	2
2	Corners	6
14	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
334	Passes	568
37%	Possession %	63%
1.49	xG	0.65

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Valencia 41%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.17

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Valencia	41.2%	2.43	3.65 Betano	27.4%	+13.8
Match result	Draw	27.7%	3.61	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-0.9
Match result	Athletic Club	31.1%	3.21	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	-12.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.2%	1.37	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-0.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.8%	3.73	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.2%	2.12	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-0.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.8%	1.89	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.6%	3.91	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.4%	1.34	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.5%	1.91	1.83 Betfair	54.6%	-2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.5%	2.10	2.00 Betano	50.0%	-2.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Valencia favoured against Athletic Club

Our model makes Valencia 41% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Athletic Club at 31%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Valencia against 1.17 for Athletic Club — a slight edge to Valencia on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Valencia and Athletic Club
Valencia		Athletic Club
12	Played	11
2-3-7	W-D-L	4-4-3
0.75	Pts / game	1.45
0.67	Goals for / game	1.36
1.67	Goals against / game	1.00
50%	Over 2.5	45%
33%	BTTS	45%
33%	Clean sheets	45%
50%	Failed to score	27%
0-2-5	Home record	3-2-1
2-1-2	Away record	1-2-2
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Valencia · Athletic Club

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.9	Shots	15.7
3.3	Shots on target	3.8
3.9	Corners	5.2
3.33	Cards	1.87
15.1	Fouls	11.8
42	Possession %	59
1.11	xG	1.74
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	11.3
5.6	Shots on target	3.5
5.9	Corners	4.0
3.05	Cards	2.70
10.1	Fouls	14.5
58	Possession %	41
1.56	xG	0.98
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Valencia	Metric	Athletic Club
0.80	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	0.20 (better)
0.87	Expected goals (xG)	2.05 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
10.00	Total shots	17.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	5.50 (better)
49.4	Possession %	55.0 (better)
432	Passes	530 (better)
	Tackles
9.40 (better)	Fouls	12.50
2.40	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Valencia wins: 2
Draws: 1
Athletic Club wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 25%
Both score: 25%

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5