Espanyol v Atletico Madrid

13th0–13rd

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Espanyol		Atletico Madrid
10	Shots	19
2	Shots on target	6
4	Corners	12
10	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	5
—	Red cards	—
0	Offsides	4
273	Passes	670
30%	Possession %	70%
0.51	xG	1.47

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Atletico Madrid 49%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.67

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Espanyol	25.6%	3.91	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+5.6
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.94	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+0.4
Match result	Atletico Madrid	49.0%	2.04	1.87 Betano	53.5%	-4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.7%	1.29	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.3%	4.49	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+0.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.4%	1.87	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.6%	2.15	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.1%	3.21	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.9%	1.45	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.9%	1.79	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.1%	2.27	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-2.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atletico Madrid favoured against Espanyol

Our model makes Espanyol 26% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Atletico Madrid at 49%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Espanyol against 1.67 for Atletico Madrid — a substantial edge to Atletico Madrid on expected output. A combined 2.81 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Espanyol and Atletico Madrid
Espanyol		Atletico Madrid
12	Played	12
3-3-6	W-D-L	9-1-2
1.00	Pts / game	2.33
1.08	Goals for / game	1.92
1.17	Goals against / game	0.83
50%	Over 2.5	67%
58%	BTTS	42%
33%	Clean sheets	50%
17%	Failed to score	8%
1-2-3	Home record	4-1-1
2-1-3	Away record	5-0-1
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Espanyol · Atletico Madrid

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	17.4
3.3	Shots on target	6.4
4.3	Corners	5.8
3.17	Cards	2.50
14.4	Fouls	11.3
47	Possession %	58
0.83	xG	1.98
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	11.4
5.0	Shots on target	3.1
6.7	Corners	3.1
3.88	Cards	1.77
10.4	Fouls	9.9
53	Possession %	43
1.31	xG	0.92
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Espanyol	Metric	Atletico Madrid
1.20	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.27	Expected goals (xG)	2.06 (better)
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	6.80 (better)
13.80	Total shots	16.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.80	Corners	5.40 (better)
49.6	Possession %	58.4 (better)
386	Passes	577 (better)
	Tackles
17.00	Fouls	10.20 (better)
4.25	Offsides	2.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Espanyol wins: 1
Draws: 0
Atletico Madrid wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5