Predicted Edge

Malaga v Real Sociedad

Malaga won 0 of the last 520th2–5Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 55th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Malaga Real Sociedad
17Shots21
6Shots on target9
4Corners5
4Fouls9
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Offsides2
478Passes590
45%Possession %55%
1.28xG2.46
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
42%
Both score
66%
Model pick
Malaga 45%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.50

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Malaga 0

2.31Marathonbet · fair 2.08 · qualifies at 2.14+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Malaga 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.31 with Marathonbet — Malaga to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 59% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.08. The offered 2.31 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Malaga 1.82, Real Sociedad 1.50.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultMalaga44.6%2.243.40 Bet36529.4%+15.2
Match resultDraw23.9%4.193.75 Betfair26.7%-2.8
Match resultReal Sociedad31.5%3.172.27 Betano44.1%-12.6
Total goalsOver 1.584.9%1.181.27 Betano78.7%+6.2
Total goalsUnder 1.515.1%6.644.50 Bet36522.2%-7.2
Total goalsOver 2.564.4%1.551.83 Betano54.6%+9.8
Total goalsUnder 2.535.6%2.812.20 Bet36545.5%-9.9
Total goalsOver 3.542.4%2.363.05 Betano32.8%+9.6
Total goalsUnder 3.557.6%1.741.50 Bet36566.7%-9.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes65.7%1.521.67 Bet36559.9%+5.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No34.3%2.912.45 BetVictor40.8%-6.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Malaga favoured against Real Sociedad

Our model makes Malaga 45% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Real Sociedad at 31%. The goal projection is 1.82 for Malaga against 1.50 for Real Sociedad — a clear edge to Malaga on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
2-2 7%
1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Malaga and Real Sociedad
Malaga Real Sociedad
12Played12
0-5-7W-D-L7-1-4
0.42Pts / game1.83
0.75Goals for / game1.75
1.92Goals against / game1.67
42%Over 2.575%
67%BTTS67%
8%Clean sheets17%
33%Failed to score25%
0-3-3Home record4-1-1
0-2-4Away record3-0-3
L2StreakW1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Malaga · Real Sociedad

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.6Shots15.7
4.9Shots on target4.7
5.1Corners6.1
2.77Cards2.48
12.1Fouls12.3
46Possession %53
0.99xG1.73
7 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.4Shots14.7
6.3Shots on target4.4
5.7Corners5.4
2.57Cards1.88
11.3Fouls9.6
54Possession %47
1.96xG1.70
7 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
MalagaMetricReal Sociedad
0.60Goals scored1.40 (better)
1.20 (better)Goals conceded2.00
0.76Expected goals (xG)1.17 (better)
Big chances
3.40Shots on target5.00 (better)
10.60Total shots14.50 (better)
Touches in opp. box
6.40Corners7.75 (better)
53.6 (better)Possession %48.8
478 (better)Passes461
Tackles
13.60Fouls11.75 (better)
1.40Offsides1.25 (better)
Throw-ins
3.20Yellow cards2.25 (better)
0.00 (better)Red cards0.67

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Malaga wins
0
Draws
0
Real Sociedad wins
1
Goals / game
7.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%
La Liga table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Barcelona121101+3533Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2Real Madrid121002+2130Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3Atletico Madrid12912+1328Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4Real Betis12822+526Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5Real Sociedad12714+122Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6Sevilla12534-218Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7Athletic Club11443+416Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8Villarreal12435+215Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9Deportivo La Coruna12363+115Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10Racing Santander12426-1314Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11Celta Vigo12273013Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12Alaves12345-213Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13Espanyol12336-112Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14Rayo Vallecano11335-612Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15Getafe12336-1012Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16Osasuna12336-1112Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17Levante12255-511Levante won 1 of the last 5
18Elche12246-610Elche won 1 of the last 5
19Valencia12237-129Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20Malaga12057-145Malaga won 0 of the last 5