Villarreal v Elche

8th0–018th

14:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Villarreal		Elche
20	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	1
10	Corners	5
12	Fouls	7
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	0
529	Passes	388
58%	Possession %	42%
2.23	xG	0.31

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Villarreal 57%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.30 – 1.40

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Villarreal	57.2%	1.75	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-9.4
Match result	Draw	20.5%	4.88	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+1.2
Match result	Elche	22.3%	4.48	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+8.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.8%	1.13	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+2.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.2%	8.91	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	-4.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.4%	1.40	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+4.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	28.6%	3.50	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-7.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	50.6%	1.98	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	49.4%	2.02	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.2%	1.47	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	+9.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.8%	3.15	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-11.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Villarreal favoured against Elche

Our model makes Villarreal 57% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 20% and Elche at 22%. The goal projection is 2.30 for Villarreal against 1.40 for Elche — a substantial edge to Villarreal on expected output. A combined 3.70 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 8%; 3-1 7%; 2-0 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Villarreal and Elche
Villarreal		Elche
12	Played	12
4-3-5	W-D-L	2-4-6
1.25	Pts / game	0.83
1.42	Goals for / game	1.17
1.25	Goals against / game	1.67
58%	Over 2.5	50%
58%	BTTS	50%
17%	Clean sheets	25%
33%	Failed to score	42%
2-1-3	Home record	0-1-5
2-2-2	Away record	2-3-1
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Villarreal · Elche

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.6	Shots	12.1
5.9	Shots on target	3.6
7.5	Corners	4.7
2.08	Cards	3.17
10.1	Fouls	12.6
62	Possession %	51
2.15	xG	1.25
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.8	Shots	15.9
3.5	Shots on target	4.6
4.5	Corners	4.7
3.27	Cards	2.00
11.8	Fouls	13.1
38	Possession %	49
1.06	xG	1.69
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Villarreal	Metric	Elche
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
2.39 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.35
	Big chances
6.60 (better)	Shots on target	5.40
16.20 (better)	Total shots	12.20
	Touches in opp. box
7.20 (better)	Corners	4.40
59.4 (better)	Possession %	48.4
592 (better)	Passes	439
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	14.00
2.80	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Villarreal wins: 2
Draws: 1
Elche wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Villarreal v Elche0–02026-10-17
Villarreal v Elche2–12026-03-08
Elche v Villarreal1–32026-01-03

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5