Getafe v 
Rayo Vallecano
- Over 1.5
- 64%
- Over 2.5
- 37%
- Over 3.5
- 17%
- Both score
- 44%
- Model pick
- Getafe 36%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.11 – 1.04
Advised bets
Members only
Confidence 4 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome.
Our probabilities against the marketMembers
Every market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Getafe v Rayo Vallecano: too close to call
Our model makes Getafe 36% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 31% and Rayo Vallecano at 33%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Getafe against 1.04 for Rayo Vallecano — almost nothing to Getafe on expected output. A combined 2.16 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 12%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-1 11%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Played | 7 |
| 2-2-4 | W-D-L | 2-2-3 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.14 |
| 0.50 | Goals for / game | 1.57 |
| 1.25 | Goals against / game | 2.29 |
| 25% | Over 2.5 | 71% |
| 25% | BTTS | 100% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2-2-0 | Home record | 2-1-0 |
| 0-0-4 | Away record | 0-1-3 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Getafe · Rayo Vallecano
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.8 | Shots | 17.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 4.50 | Cards | 3.50 |
| 16.3 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 31 | Possession % | 59 |
| 0.55 | xG | 1.27 |
| 4 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Conceded
| 16.5 | Shots | 14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 7.3 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 18.0 |
| 70 | Possession % | 41 |
| 1.31 | xG | 1.01 |
| 4 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Form comparison
| Getafe | Metric | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 0.57 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.08 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.20 | Shots on target | 4.40 (better) |
| 11.40 | Total shots | 14.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.20 | Corners | 4.40 (better) |
| 30.4 | Possession % | 52.8 (better) |
| 249 | Passes | 359 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.60 | Fouls | 10.60 (better) |
| 1.60 | Offsides | 0.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 4.00 | Yellow cards | 2.20 (better) |
| 0.50 (better) | Red cards | 0.67 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Getafe wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Rayo Vallecano wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 50%
- Getafe v Rayo Vallecano0–22026-05-03
- Rayo Vallecano v Getafe1–12026-01-02
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 | Barcelona won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 | Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 | Real Betis won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 | Real Madrid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 | Sevilla won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 | Real Sociedad won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 | Alaves won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 | Rayo Vallecano won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 | Getafe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 | Racing Santander won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 | Osasuna won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 | Elche won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |