England
League One predictions
Every League One match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the League One page.
12 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Milton Keynes Dons, 49% against Burton Albion at home; the most evenly balanced game is Stevenage v Mansfield Town (Stevenage 36%, draw 29%, Mansfield Town 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Wycombe v Huddersfield, at 3.33.
Every match, one prediction
11 more member picks on these League One matches, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick
Match by match
Leicester v BradfordSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Leicester 35%, the draw 31% and Bradford 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.09 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 65%. Leicester are 10th on 19 points from 13; Bradford are 7th on 22 points from 13. Leicester have won three of their last five; Bradford have won one of their last five.
Wigan v BarnsleySat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Wigan 41%, the draw 25% and Barnsley 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 57%. Wigan are 21st on 11 points from 14; Barnsley are 23rd on 9 points from 12. Wigan have won one of their last five; Barnsley are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
Sheffield Wednesday v PlymouthSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Sheffield Wednesday 29%, the draw 26% and Plymouth 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Plymouth to win at 45%. Sheffield Wednesday are 9th on 20 points from 13; Plymouth are 5th on 23 points from 14. Sheffield Wednesday have won one of their last five; Plymouth have won two of their last five.
AFC Wimbledon v BlackpoolSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes AFC Wimbledon 29%, the draw 27% and Blackpool 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Blackpool to win at 44%. AFC Wimbledon are 18th on 13 points from 13; Blackpool are 19th on 12 points from 12. AFC Wimbledon are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Blackpool have won one of their last five. AFC Wimbledon have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Milton Keynes Dons v Burton AlbionSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Milton Keynes Dons 49%, the draw 24% and Burton Albion 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Milton Keynes Dons to win at 49%. Milton Keynes Dons are 12th on 18 points from 13; Burton Albion are 15th on 17 points from 14. Milton Keynes Dons have won four of their last five; Burton Albion have won one of their last five.
Peterborough v Oxford UnitedSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Peterborough 28%, the draw 26% and Oxford United 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.69 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Oxford United to win at 46%. Peterborough are 22nd on 10 points from 13; Oxford United are 3rd on 26 points from 13. Peterborough have won one of their last five; Oxford United are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).
Doncaster v Leyton OrientSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Doncaster 33%, the draw 28% and Leyton Orient 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Leyton Orient to win at 39%. Doncaster are 20th on 12 points from 13; Leyton Orient are 14th on 17 points from 13. Doncaster have won one of their last five; Leyton Orient have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Doncaster wins, draws and Leyton Orient wins.
Wycombe v HuddersfieldSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Wycombe 32%, the draw 24% and Huddersfield 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 65%. Wycombe are 13th on 18 points from 13; Huddersfield are 1st on 29 points from 14. Wycombe have won two of their last five; Huddersfield are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Luton v Cambridge UnitedSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Luton 45%, the draw 25% and Cambridge United 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Luton are 4th on 24 points from 14; Cambridge United are 8th on 21 points from 14. Luton are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Cambridge United have won one of their last five.
Stevenage v Mansfield TownSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Stevenage 36%, the draw 29% and Mansfield Town 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 56%. Stevenage are 16th on 16 points from 12; Mansfield Town are 11th on 19 points from 13. Stevenage have won two of their last five; Mansfield Town have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
Bromley v Notts CountySat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Bromley 28%, the draw 26% and Notts County 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Notts County to win at 47%. Bromley are 24th on 9 points from 13; Notts County are 17th on 14 points from 12. Bromley are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Notts County have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
Stockport County v ReadingSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Stockport County 43%, the draw 26% and Reading 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Stockport County are 2nd on 26 points from 14; Reading are 6th on 22 points from 14. Stockport County have won three of their last five; Reading have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
The numbers this season
League One has averaged 2.79 goals a game over 158 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 53% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are League One predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are League One predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in League One?
- 42% of matches this season, over 158 played, with 30% drawn and 28% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.79 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 53%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.