Predicted Edge

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Eredivisie predictions

Every Eredivisie match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Eredivisie page.

18 matches in the next 14 days, 9 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is PSV Eindhoven, 80% against ADO Den Haag away; the most evenly balanced game is Heerenveen v Excelsior (Heerenveen 38%, draw 25%, Excelsior 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven, at 4.79.

Every match, one prediction

Today

Eredivisie1Prediction

Tomorrow

Eredivisie3Prediction

Sun 18 Oct

Eredivisie5Prediction

Fri 23 Oct

Eredivisie1Prediction

Sat 24 Oct

Eredivisie3Prediction

Sun 25 Oct

Eredivisie5Prediction

2 more member picks on these Eredivisie matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →

Match by match

Heerenveen v ExcelsiorFri 16 Oct, 19:00

Our model makes Heerenveen 38%, the draw 25% and Excelsior 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.09 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Heerenveen are 10th on 9 points from 8; Excelsior are 9th on 11 points from 8. Heerenveen have won one of their last five; Excelsior have won one of their last five. Heerenveen have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

ADO Den Haag v PSV EindhovenSat 17 Oct, 15:30

Our model makes ADO Den Haag 8%, the draw 11% and PSV Eindhoven 80%. The likeliest score is 1-3 (8%), 4.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is PSV Eindhoven to win at 80%. ADO Den Haag are 17th on 3 points from 8; PSV Eindhoven are 2nd on 19 points from 8. ADO Den Haag are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); PSV Eindhoven have won four of their last five.

Telstar v FeyenoordSat 17 Oct, 19:00

Our model makes Telstar 23%, the draw 22% and Feyenoord 55%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Feyenoord to win at 55%. Telstar are 15th on 6 points from 8; Feyenoord are 1st on 20 points from 8. Telstar are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Feyenoord are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Feyenoord have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem IISat 17 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Sparta Rotterdam 48%, the draw 22% and Willem II 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Sparta Rotterdam to win at 48%. Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 6 points from 8; Willem II are 18th on 2 points from 8. Sparta Rotterdam are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Willem II are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).

PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead EaglesSun 18 Oct, 11:15

Our model makes PEC Zwolle 23%, the draw 21% and GO Ahead Eagles 57%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.72 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is GO Ahead Eagles to win at 57%. PEC Zwolle are 16th on 4 points from 8; GO Ahead Eagles are 8th on 11 points from 8. PEC Zwolle are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); GO Ahead Eagles are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). GO Ahead Eagles have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Cambuur v AZ AlkmaarSun 18 Oct, 13:30

Our model makes Cambuur 16%, the draw 18% and AZ Alkmaar 66%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is AZ Alkmaar to win at 66%. Cambuur are 12th on 8 points from 8; AZ Alkmaar are 3rd on 19 points from 8. Cambuur have won two of their last five; AZ Alkmaar have won three of their last five.

Groningen v AjaxSun 18 Oct, 15:45

Our model makes Groningen 25%, the draw 22% and Ajax 53%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Ajax to win at 53%. Groningen are 6th on 14 points from 8; Ajax are 5th on 15 points from 8. Groningen have won two of their last five; Ajax have won two of their last five. Ajax have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna SittardSun 18 Oct, 19:00

Our model makes NEC Nijmegen 45%, the draw 24% and Fortuna Sittard 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 9 points from 8; Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 14 points from 8. NEC Nijmegen are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Fortuna Sittard have won three of their last five. Fortuna Sittard have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Twente v UtrechtSun 18 Oct, 19:00

Our model makes Twente 56%, the draw 21% and Utrecht 23%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.53 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Twente to win at 56%. Twente are 4th on 17 points from 8; Utrecht are 13th on 8 points from 8. Twente are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Utrecht have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.

The numbers this season

Eredivisie has averaged 3.74 goals a game over 72 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 72% of them and both sides scoring in 69%. Home sides have won 31% of matches, 29% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Eredivisie predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Eredivisie predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Eredivisie?
31% of matches this season, over 72 played, with 29% drawn and 40% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.74 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 72%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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