Groningen v 
Ajax
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Over 3.5
- 46%
- Both score
- 66%
- Model pick
- Ajax 53%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.38 – 2.09
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketMembers
Every market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Ajax favoured against Groningen
Our model makes Groningen 25% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 22% and Ajax at 53%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Groningen against 2.09 for Ajax — a substantial edge to Ajax on expected output. A combined 3.47 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-2 7%
- 1-3 7%
- 2-2 6%
This season
| Groningen | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Played | 8 |
| 4-2-2 | W-D-L | 4-3-1 |
| 1.75 | Pts / game | 1.88 |
| 2.50 | Goals for / game | 2.75 |
| 1.75 | Goals against / game | 1.25 |
| 88% | Over 2.5 | 75% |
| 88% | BTTS | 75% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2-1-1 | Home record | 1-3-1 |
| 2-1-1 | Away record | 3-0-0 |
| W2 | Streak | D2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Groningen · Ajax
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.0 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 9.0 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 61 |
| 2.77 | xG | 1.86 |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 16.0 | Shots | 8.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 0.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 49 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.81 | xG | 1.11 |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Groningen | Metric | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 2.80 (better) |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.86 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.80 | Shots on target | 8.40 (better) |
| 14.20 | Total shots | 26.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.80 | Corners | 7.80 (better) |
| 48.6 | Possession % | 66.0 (better) |
| 436 | Passes | 639 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Fouls | 7.60 |
| 1.67 (better) | Offsides | 1.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.75 |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Groningen wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Ajax wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Ajax v Groningen2–02026-05-21
- Groningen v Ajax3–12026-03-07
- Ajax v Groningen2–02025-12-02
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 | Feyenoord won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 | PSV Eindhoven won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 | AZ Alkmaar won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 | Twente won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 | Ajax won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | Groningen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 | Fortuna Sittard won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 | GO Ahead Eagles won 0 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 | Excelsior won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | Heerenveen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 | NEC Nijmegen won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 | Cambuur won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 | Utrecht won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 | Sparta Rotterdam won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 | Telstar won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 | PEC Zwolle won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 | ADO Den Haag won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 | Willem II won 0 of the last 5 |