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Eredivisie predictions: matchweek 9 (16–18 October 2026)
Every Eredivisie match in matchweek 9 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Eredivisie, matchweek 9: nine matches, played across 16–18 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is PSV Eindhoven, 80% to beat ADO Den Haag away; the most evenly balanced game is Heerenveen v Excelsior (Heerenveen 38%, draw 25%, Excelsior 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven, at 4.79; the tightest looks Heerenveen v Excelsior, at 3.09.
Going into the round, Feyenoord lead on 20 points, one point clear of PSV Eindhoven, with AZ Alkmaar third on 19. The bottom three are PEC Zwolle (4), ADO Den Haag (3), Willem II (2).
The numbers this season
Eredivisie has averaged 3.74 goals a game over 72 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 72% of them and both sides scoring in 69%. Home sides have won 31% of matches, 29% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Heerenveen v ExcelsiorFri 16 Oct, 19:00
Our model makes Heerenveen 38%, the draw 25% and Excelsior 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.09 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Heerenveen are 10th on 9 points from 8; Excelsior are 9th on 11 points from 8. Heerenveen have won one of their last five; Excelsior have won one of their last five. Heerenveen have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
ADO Den Haag v PSV EindhovenSat 17 Oct, 15:30
Our model makes ADO Den Haag 8%, the draw 11% and PSV Eindhoven 80%. The likeliest score is 1-3 (8%), 4.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is PSV Eindhoven to win at 80%. ADO Den Haag are 17th on 3 points from 8; PSV Eindhoven are 2nd on 19 points from 8. ADO Den Haag are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); PSV Eindhoven have won four of their last five.
Telstar v FeyenoordSat 17 Oct, 19:00
Our model makes Telstar 23%, the draw 22% and Feyenoord 55%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Feyenoord to win at 55%. Telstar are 15th on 6 points from 8; Feyenoord are 1st on 20 points from 8. Telstar are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Feyenoord are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Feyenoord have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Sparta Rotterdam v Willem IISat 17 Oct, 20:00
Our model makes Sparta Rotterdam 48%, the draw 22% and Willem II 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Sparta Rotterdam to win at 48%. Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 6 points from 8; Willem II are 18th on 2 points from 8. Sparta Rotterdam are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Willem II are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).
PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead EaglesSun 18 Oct, 11:15
Our model makes PEC Zwolle 23%, the draw 21% and GO Ahead Eagles 57%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.72 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is GO Ahead Eagles to win at 57%. PEC Zwolle are 16th on 4 points from 8; GO Ahead Eagles are 8th on 11 points from 8. PEC Zwolle are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); GO Ahead Eagles are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). GO Ahead Eagles have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Cambuur v AZ AlkmaarSun 18 Oct, 13:30
Our model makes Cambuur 16%, the draw 18% and AZ Alkmaar 66%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is AZ Alkmaar to win at 66%. Cambuur are 12th on 8 points from 8; AZ Alkmaar are 3rd on 19 points from 8. Cambuur have won two of their last five; AZ Alkmaar have won three of their last five.
Groningen v AjaxSun 18 Oct, 15:45
Our model makes Groningen 25%, the draw 22% and Ajax 53%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Ajax to win at 53%. Groningen are 6th on 14 points from 8; Ajax are 5th on 15 points from 8. Groningen have won two of their last five; Ajax have won two of their last five. Ajax have won two of the sides' last three meetings.
NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna SittardSun 18 Oct, 19:00
Our model makes NEC Nijmegen 45%, the draw 24% and Fortuna Sittard 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 9 points from 8; Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 14 points from 8. NEC Nijmegen are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Fortuna Sittard have won three of their last five. Fortuna Sittard have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Twente v UtrechtSun 18 Oct, 19:00
Our model makes Twente 56%, the draw 21% and Utrecht 23%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.53 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Twente to win at 56%. Twente are 4th on 17 points from 8; Utrecht are 13th on 8 points from 8. Twente are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Utrecht have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published two picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
Eredivisie9Prediction
2 more member picks on these matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.