Germany
2. Bundesliga predictions
Every 2. Bundesliga match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the 2. Bundesliga page.
4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is VfL Bochum, 58% against Karlsruher SC at home; the most evenly balanced game is 1. FC Heidenheim v Hannover 96 (1. FC Heidenheim 45%, draw 24%, Hannover 96 31%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is 1. FC Heidenheim v Hannover 96, at 3.32.
Every match, one prediction
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2. Bundesliga1Most likely prediction
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Match by match
Hertha BSC v VfL WolfsburgSat 7 Nov, 19:30
Our model makes Hertha BSC 54%, the draw 22% and VfL Wolfsburg 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. Hertha BSC are 1st on 28 points from 10; VfL Wolfsburg are 3rd on 19 points from 10. Hertha BSC are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); VfL Wolfsburg are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).
VfL Bochum v Karlsruher SCSun 8 Nov, 12:30
Our model makes VfL Bochum 58%, the draw 23% and Karlsruher SC 19%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is VfL Bochum to win at 58%. VfL Bochum are 13th on 11 points from 10; Karlsruher SC are 16th on 11 points from 10. VfL Bochum have won one of their last five; Karlsruher SC have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
1. FC Magdeburg v FC St. PauliSun 8 Nov, 12:30
Our model makes 1. FC Magdeburg 57%, the draw 23% and FC St. Pauli 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is 1. FC Magdeburg to win at 57%. 1. FC Magdeburg are 5th on 17 points from 10; FC St. Pauli are 8th on 12 points from 10. 1. FC Magdeburg have won two of their last five; FC St. Pauli have won one of their last five.
1. FC Heidenheim v Hannover 96Sun 8 Nov, 12:30
Our model makes 1. FC Heidenheim 45%, the draw 24% and Hannover 96 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. 1. FC Heidenheim are 6th on 15 points from 10; Hannover 96 are 15th on 11 points from 10. 1. FC Heidenheim are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Hannover 96 have won two of their last five.
The numbers this season
2. Bundesliga has averaged 2.97 goals a game over 92 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 25%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are 2. Bundesliga predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are 2. Bundesliga predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in 2. Bundesliga?
- 47% of matches this season, over 92 played, with 28% drawn and 25% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.97 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 57%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.