1. FC Heidenheim v 
Hannover 96
- Over 1.5
- 85%
- Over 2.5
- 64%
- Over 3.5
- 42%
- Both score
- 66%
- Model pick
- 1. FC Heidenheim 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.82 – 1.50
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
1. FC Heidenheim favoured against Hannover 96
Our model makes 1. FC Heidenheim 45% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Hannover 96 at 31%. The goal projection is 1.82 for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.50 for Hannover 96 — a clear edge to 1. FC Heidenheim on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 6%
This season
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Hannover 96 | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 4-3-3 | W-D-L | 3-2-5 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 1.10 |
| 1.70 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.80 | Goals against / game | 1.60 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 70% | BTTS | 60% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 10% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 3-2-0 | Home record | 2-2-1 |
| 1-1-3 | Away record | 1-0-4 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. 1. FC Heidenheim · Hannover 96
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 20.2 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 8.4 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.80 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 9.4 | Fouls | 13.6 |
| 53 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2.10 | xG | 1.56 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 12.2 | Shots | 17.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 1.85 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 47 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.14 | xG | 1.43 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Metric | Hannover 96 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.60 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 2.15 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.22 |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Shots on target | 5.50 |
| 23.33 (better) | Total shots | 16.75 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 10.00 (better) | Corners | 7.25 |
| 49.7 (better) | Possession % | 49.5 |
| 355 | Passes | 413 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.33 (better) | Fouls | 12.75 |
| 3.33 | Offsides | 2.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.50 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →No previous meetings on record.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 28 | Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +13 | 24 | 1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 21 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 19 | VfL Wolfsburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 | 1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 | Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | VfL Bochum | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 | VfL Bochum won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 | VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 | Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Hannover 96 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 | Hannover 96 won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 11 | Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 | SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 8 | Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5 |