Hertha BSC v 
VfL Wolfsburg
- Over 1.5
- 85%
- Over 2.5
- 64%
- Over 3.5
- 42%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Hertha BSC 54%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.03 – 1.29
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hertha BSC favoured against VfL Wolfsburg
Our model makes Hertha BSC 54% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and VfL Wolfsburg at 24%. The goal projection is 2.03 for Hertha BSC against 1.29 for VfL Wolfsburg — a substantial edge to Hertha BSC on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 7%
- 1-0 7%
- 3-1 6%
This season
| Hertha BSC | VfL Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 9-1-0 | W-D-L | 5-4-1 |
| 2.80 | Pts / game | 1.90 |
| 2.30 | Goals for / game | 2.50 |
| 0.80 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 60% | BTTS | 60% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 4-0-0 | Home record | 3-2-0 |
| 5-1-0 | Away record | 2-2-1 |
| W2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hertha BSC · VfL Wolfsburg
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.8 | Shots | 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 7.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 1.75 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 54 | Possession % | 58 |
| 2.11 | xG | 2.06 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 11.5 | Shots | 18.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 6.5 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.25 | Cards | 1.25 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 46 | Possession % | 42 |
| 0.83 | xG | 1.81 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Hertha BSC | Metric | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 0.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 2.28 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.92 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.60 | Shots on target | 6.60 |
| 19.20 (better) | Total shots | 18.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.40 | Corners | 6.40 |
| 57.6 (better) | Possession % | 54.8 |
| 472 | Passes | 486 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 (better) | Fouls | 13.80 |
| 1.60 | Offsides | 0.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.60 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →No previous meetings on record.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 28 | Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +13 | 24 | 1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 21 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 19 | VfL Wolfsburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 | 1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 | Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | VfL Bochum | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 | VfL Bochum won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 | VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 | Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Hannover 96 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 | Hannover 96 won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 11 | Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 | SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 8 | Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5 |