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Major League Soccer predictions
Every Major League Soccer match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Major League Soccer page.
30 matches in the next 14 days, 16 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Seattle Sounders, 53% against CF Montreal at home; the most evenly balanced game is New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC (New York Red Bulls 37%, draw 26%, Toronto FC 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew, at 3.99.
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Match by match
Philadelphia Union v CharlotteSat 17 Oct, 19:30
Our model makes Philadelphia Union 49%, the draw 23% and Charlotte 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 45%. Philadelphia Union are 12th on 45 points from 29; Charlotte are 9th on 46 points from 29. Philadelphia Union have won all of their last five; Charlotte have won two of their last five. Charlotte have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Minnesota United FC v St. Louis CitySat 17 Oct, 21:30
Our model makes Minnesota United FC 31%, the draw 22% and St. Louis City 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is St. Louis City to win at 47%. Minnesota United FC are 26th on 31 points from 29; St. Louis City are 4th on 51 points from 29. Minnesota United FC are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); St. Louis City are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Minnesota United FC wins, draws and St. Louis City wins.
New York Red Bulls v Toronto FCSun 18 Oct, 00:30
Our model makes New York Red Bulls 37%, the draw 26% and Toronto FC 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. New York Red Bulls are 18th on 36 points from 29; Toronto FC are 23rd on 33 points from 29. New York Red Bulls have won three of their last five; Toronto FC have won one of their last five.
New England Revolution v Chicago FireSun 18 Oct, 00:30
Our model makes New England Revolution 42%, the draw 24% and Chicago Fire 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. New England Revolution are 6th on 49 points from 29; Chicago Fire are 7th on 48 points from 29. New England Revolution have won three of their last five; Chicago Fire have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.
New York City FC v Los Angeles FCSun 18 Oct, 00:30
Our model makes New York City FC 35%, the draw 28% and Los Angeles FC 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Los Angeles FC to win at 37%. New York City FC are 19th on 33 points from 29; Los Angeles FC are 11th on 45 points from 30. New York City FC have won one of their last five; Los Angeles FC have won one of their last five.
Orlando City SC v DC UnitedSun 18 Oct, 00:30
Our model makes Orlando City SC 48%, the draw 22% and DC United 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 51%. Orlando City SC are 16th on 38 points from 29; DC United are 24th on 33 points from 28. Orlando City SC have won two of their last five; DC United have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Atlanta United FC v Inter MiamiSun 18 Oct, 00:30
Our model makes Atlanta United FC 26%, the draw 21% and Inter Miami 52%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is Inter Miami to win at 52%. Atlanta United FC are 28th on 30 points from 29; Inter Miami are 3rd on 52 points from 29. Atlanta United FC have won two of their last five; Inter Miami have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Houston Dynamo v FC DallasSun 18 Oct, 01:30
Our model makes Houston Dynamo 38%, the draw 27% and FC Dallas 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Houston Dynamo to win at 38%. Houston Dynamo are 10th on 46 points from 29; FC Dallas are 5th on 50 points from 29. Houston Dynamo are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); FC Dallas have won three of their last five.
Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt LakeSun 18 Oct, 01:30
Our model makes Sporting Kansas City 33%, the draw 23% and Real Salt Lake 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 46%. Sporting Kansas City are 30th on 22 points from 29; Real Salt Lake are 22nd on 33 points from 29. Sporting Kansas City have won one of their last five; Real Salt Lake have won one of their last five. Real Salt Lake have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Austin v Vancouver WhitecapsSun 18 Oct, 01:30
Our model makes Austin 25%, the draw 23% and Vancouver Whitecaps 53%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 53%. Austin are 27th on 31 points from 29; Vancouver Whitecaps are 2nd on 52 points from 29. Austin have won one of their last five; Vancouver Whitecaps have won one of their last five.
San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SCSun 18 Oct, 03:30
Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes 27%, the draw 24% and Nashville SC 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Nashville SC to win at 48%. San Jose Earthquakes are 8th on 47 points from 29; Nashville SC are 1st on 66 points from 29. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Nashville SC are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).
Portland Timbers v Colorado RapidsSun 18 Oct, 03:30
Our model makes Portland Timbers 44%, the draw 24% and Colorado Rapids 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 84%. Portland Timbers are 21st on 33 points from 29; Colorado Rapids are 15th on 38 points from 29. Portland Timbers are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Colorado Rapids have won one of their last five.
Los Angeles Galaxy v San DiegoSun 18 Oct, 03:30
Our model makes Los Angeles Galaxy 37%, the draw 24% and San Diego 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.23 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 84%. Los Angeles Galaxy are 14th on 39 points from 30; San Diego are 20th on 33 points from 29. Los Angeles Galaxy have won three of their last five; San Diego are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats).
Seattle Sounders v CF MontrealSun 18 Oct, 03:30
Our model makes Seattle Sounders 53%, the draw 24% and CF Montreal 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Seattle Sounders to win at 53%. Seattle Sounders are 13th on 41 points from 29; CF Montreal are 29th on 24 points from 29. Seattle Sounders have won four of their last five; CF Montreal have won one of their last five.
FC Cincinnati v Columbus CrewSun 18 Oct, 22:00
Our model makes FC Cincinnati 46%, the draw 21% and Columbus Crew 33%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 3.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 75%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 56%. FC Cincinnati are 17th on 36 points from 28; Columbus Crew are 25th on 32 points from 29. FC Cincinnati have won one of their last five; Columbus Crew have won three of their last five. Columbus Crew have won three of the sides' last five meetings.
FC Cincinnati v DC UnitedThu 22 Oct, 00:00
Our model makes FC Cincinnati 52%, the draw 21% and DC United 27%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 3.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 56%. FC Cincinnati are 17th on 36 points from 28; DC United are 24th on 33 points from 28. FC Cincinnati have won one of their last five; DC United have won one of their last five.
The numbers this season
Major League Soccer has averaged 3.26 goals a game over 435 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Major League Soccer predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Major League Soccer predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Major League Soccer?
- 46% of matches this season, over 435 played, with 26% drawn and 28% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.26 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 64%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.
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