Minnesota United FC v St. Louis City

26th4th

20:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 70%
Over 3.5: 49%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: St. Louis City 47%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 2.00

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketMembers

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

St. Louis City favoured against Minnesota United FC

Our model makes Minnesota United FC 31% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 22% and St. Louis City at 47%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Minnesota United FC against 2.00 for St. Louis City — a clear edge to St. Louis City on expected output. A combined 3.61 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC		St. Louis City
29	Played	29
7-10-12	W-D-L	14-9-6
1.07	Pts / game	1.76
1.52	Goals for / game	1.86
1.83	Goals against / game	1.31
66%	Over 2.5	55%
72%	BTTS	69%
17%	Clean sheets	17%
17%	Failed to score	17%
2-7-5	Home record	9-4-2
5-3-7	Away record	5-5-4
D2	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Minnesota United FC · St. Louis City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	11.0
3.3	Shots on target	6.3
4.3	Corners	3.7
1.67	Cards	1.67
10.7	Fouls	15.3
43	Possession %	56
1.39	xG	1.72
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3	Shots	15.0
6.0	Shots on target	4.0
5.7	Corners	5.7
1.67	Cards	1.67
7.7	Fouls	12.0
57	Possession %	44
1.88	xG	1.42
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Minnesota United FC	Metric	St. Louis City
2.00	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
3.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.91	Expected goals (xG)	2.42 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
13.00	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	4.75 (better)
45.0	Possession %	57.3 (better)
442	Passes	505 (better)
	Tackles
13.00 (better)	Fouls	15.75
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Minnesota United FC wins: 1
Draws: 0
St. Louis City wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.50
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

St. Louis City v Minnesota United FC4–22026-09-13
St. Louis City v Minnesota United FC1–22025-07-27

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	29	20	6	3	+41	66	Nashville SC won 4 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	15	7	7	+31	52	Vancouver Whitecaps won 1 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	29	14	10	5	+20	52	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	St. Louis City	29	14	9	6	+16	51	St. Louis City won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Dallas	29	14	8	7	+8	50	FC Dallas won 3 of the last 5
6	New England Revolution	29	15	4	10	+7	49	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
7	Chicago Fire	29	14	6	9	+9	48	Chicago Fire won 3 of the last 5
8	San Jose Earthquakes	29	13	8	8	+10	47	San Jose Earthquakes won 2 of the last 5
9	Charlotte	29	13	7	9	+8	46	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	29	13	7	9	+2	46	Houston Dynamo won 0 of the last 5
11	Los Angeles FC	30	12	9	9	+15	45	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
12	Philadelphia Union	29	13	6	10	+13	45	Philadelphia Union won 5 of the last 5
13	Seattle Sounders	29	11	8	10	+2	41	Seattle Sounders won 4 of the last 5
14	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	10	9	11	-9	39	Los Angeles Galaxy won 3 of the last 5
15	Colorado Rapids	29	11	5	13	0	38	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
16	Orlando City SC	29	11	5	13	-15	38	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
17	FC Cincinnati	28	9	9	10	-8	36	FC Cincinnati won 1 of the last 5
18	New York Red Bulls	29	10	6	13	-15	36	New York Red Bulls won 3 of the last 5
19	New York City FC	29	8	9	12	+2	33	New York City FC won 1 of the last 5
20	San Diego	29	8	9	12	-3	33	San Diego won 0 of the last 5
21	Portland Timbers	29	9	6	14	-5	33	Portland Timbers won 0 of the last 5
22	Real Salt Lake	29	9	6	14	-5	33	Real Salt Lake won 1 of the last 5
23	Toronto FC	29	7	12	10	-11	33	Toronto FC won 1 of the last 5
24	DC United	28	7	12	9	-11	33	DC United won 1 of the last 5
25	Columbus Crew	29	9	5	15	-3	32	Columbus Crew won 3 of the last 5
26	Minnesota United FC	29	7	10	12	-9	31	Minnesota United FC won 0 of the last 5
27	Austin	29	7	10	12	-17	31	Austin won 1 of the last 5
28	Atlanta United FC	29	8	6	15	-12	30	Atlanta United FC won 2 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	29	6	6	17	-24	24	CF Montreal won 1 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	29	6	4	19	-37	22	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5