Major League Soccer · Review

Major League Soccer matchweek 29 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Major League Soccer result from matchweek 29 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, matchweek 29 (15 October 2026), is complete: 15 matches, 50 goals (3.33 a game), seven home wins, five draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in ten of the 15 and both teams scored in nine.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Toronto FC v Orlando City SC (3–3), which it had at 22%; the one it rated most likely was Nashville SC's win in Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City (4–0), at 77%.

After the round, Nashville SC lead on 66 points, 14 points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with Inter Miami third on 52. The bottom three are Atlanta United FC (30), CF Montreal (24), Sporting Kansas City (22).

Match by match

CF Montreal 0–3 Atlanta United FCThu 15 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had CF Montreal 39%, the draw 27% and Atlanta United FC 35%, with CF Montreal favoured; it put Atlanta United FC winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.48–2.13: Atlanta United FC created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: CF Montreal -0.5 at 2.12 — lost.

Columbus Crew 3–1 CharlotteThu 15 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Columbus Crew 35%, the draw 26% and Charlotte 39%, with Charlotte favoured; it put Columbus Crew winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.86–0.74: Columbus Crew created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 80%, came in. Pick published: Charlotte at 3.40 — lost.

DC United 2–1 New York Red BullsThu 15 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had DC United 47%, the draw 26% and New York Red Bulls 28%, so DC United winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.26–3.00: New York Red Bulls created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, DC United to win at 47%, came in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.65 — lost.

FC Cincinnati 2–3 New England RevolutionThu 15 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Cincinnati 37%, the draw 21% and New England Revolution 41%, so New England Revolution winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.96–1.69: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 57%, came in. Pick published: New England Revolution at 3.20 — won.

Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FCThu 15 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Inter Miami 54%, the draw 21% and New York City FC 25%, so Inter Miami winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.31–1.53: Inter Miami created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 51%, did not come in. Pick published: Inter Miami -0.75 at 1.55 — won.

Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SCThu 15 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Toronto FC 46%, the draw 22% and Orlando City SC 33%, with Toronto FC favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.84–2.30: Toronto FC created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 54%, came in. Pick published: Orlando City SC +0.25 at 2.32 (free pick) — half won.

Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia UnionThu 15 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had Chicago Fire 41%, the draw 22% and Philadelphia Union 36%, with Chicago Fire favoured; it put Philadelphia Union winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.87–2.24: Philadelphia Union created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 51%, came in. Pick published: Philadelphia Union +0.25 at 2.07 — won.

FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle SoundersThu 15 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Dallas 50%, the draw 24% and Seattle Sounders 27%, so FC Dallas winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.04–2.01: Seattle Sounders created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, FC Dallas to win at 50%, came in.

Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas CityThu 15 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had Nashville SC 77%, the draw 14% and Sporting Kansas City 9%, so Nashville SC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 4.23–0.63: Nashville SC created the better chances. The headline call, Nashville SC to win at 77%, came in. Pick published: Nashville SC -0.75 at 1.32 — won.

St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsThu 15 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had St. Louis City 38%, the draw 23% and Vancouver Whitecaps 39%, with Vancouver Whitecaps favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.75–0.83: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, did not come in.

Colorado Rapids 2–2 Minnesota United FCThu 15 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had Colorado Rapids 46%, the draw 24% and Minnesota United FC 30%, with Colorado Rapids favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.09–1.55: Colorado Rapids created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 83%, came in.

Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesThu 15 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had Real Salt Lake 38%, the draw 24% and San Jose Earthquakes 38%, with Real Salt Lake favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.03–1.02: Real Salt Lake created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, came in. Pick published: Real Salt Lake -0.75 at 2.00 — lost.

Los Angeles FC 3–1 AustinThu 15 Oct, 03:30

Before kick-off the model had Los Angeles FC 58%, the draw 23% and Austin 19%, so Los Angeles FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 4.40–0.65: Los Angeles FC created the better chances. The headline call, Los Angeles FC to win at 58%, came in. Pick published: Los Angeles FC -0.75 at 1.52 — won.

Los Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Portland TimbersThu 15 Oct, 03:30

Before kick-off the model had Los Angeles Galaxy 41%, the draw 23% and Portland Timbers 35%, so Los Angeles Galaxy winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.77–0.70: Los Angeles Galaxy created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 45%, did not come in. Pick published: Portland Timbers at 3.65 — lost.

San Diego 3–3 Houston DynamoThu 15 Oct, 03:30

Before kick-off the model had San Diego 42%, the draw 27% and Houston Dynamo 31%, with San Diego favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.57–0.93: San Diego created the better chances. The headline call, San Diego to win at 42%, did not come in. Pick published: San Diego -0.5 at 1.98 — lost.

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.26 goals a game over 435 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.