New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC

18th23rd

23:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: New York Red Bulls 37%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.45

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC: too close to call

Our model makes New York Red Bulls 37% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 26% and Toronto FC at 37%. The goal projection is 1.46 for New York Red Bulls against 1.45 for Toronto FC — almost nothing to New York Red Bulls on expected output. A combined 2.91 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls		Toronto FC
29	Played	29
10-6-13	W-D-L	7-12-10
1.24	Pts / game	1.14
1.34	Goals for / game	1.52
1.86	Goals against / game	1.90
59%	Over 2.5	69%
62%	BTTS	79%
14%	Clean sheets	10%
28%	Failed to score	17%
5-3-6	Home record	5-9-2
5-3-7	Away record	2-3-8
L1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. New York Red Bulls · Toronto FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.7	Shots	13.7
7.7	Shots on target	5.0
6.3	Corners	5.3
2.00	Cards	1.33
14.7	Fouls	11.7
52	Possession %	42
3.04	xG	2.27
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	17.7
5.3	Shots on target	7.3
4.3	Corners	6.7
2.33	Cards	1.67
11.7	Fouls	13.7
48	Possession %	58
1.69	xG	1.94
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
New York Red Bulls	Metric	Toronto FC
0.40	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
1.04	Expected goals (xG)	1.37 (better)
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	4.80 (better)
10.40	Total shots	14.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	3.80
45.6 (better)	Possession %	40.8
433 (better)	Passes	338
	Tackles
14.60	Fouls	8.80 (better)
1.80	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

New York Red Bulls wins: 0
Draws: 1
Toronto FC wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Toronto FC v New York Red Bulls1–12026-03-14

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	29	20	6	3	+41	66	Nashville SC won 4 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	15	7	7	+31	52	Vancouver Whitecaps won 1 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	29	14	10	5	+20	52	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	St. Louis City	29	14	9	6	+16	51	St. Louis City won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Dallas	29	14	8	7	+8	50	FC Dallas won 3 of the last 5
6	New England Revolution	29	15	4	10	+7	49	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
7	Chicago Fire	29	14	6	9	+9	48	Chicago Fire won 3 of the last 5
8	San Jose Earthquakes	29	13	8	8	+10	47	San Jose Earthquakes won 2 of the last 5
9	Charlotte	29	13	7	9	+8	46	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	29	13	7	9	+2	46	Houston Dynamo won 0 of the last 5
11	Los Angeles FC	30	12	9	9	+15	45	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
12	Philadelphia Union	29	13	6	10	+13	45	Philadelphia Union won 5 of the last 5
13	Seattle Sounders	29	11	8	10	+2	41	Seattle Sounders won 4 of the last 5
14	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	10	9	11	-9	39	Los Angeles Galaxy won 3 of the last 5
15	Colorado Rapids	29	11	5	13	0	38	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
16	Orlando City SC	29	11	5	13	-15	38	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
17	FC Cincinnati	28	9	9	10	-8	36	FC Cincinnati won 1 of the last 5
18	New York Red Bulls	29	10	6	13	-15	36	New York Red Bulls won 3 of the last 5
19	New York City FC	29	8	9	12	+2	33	New York City FC won 1 of the last 5
20	San Diego	29	8	9	12	-3	33	San Diego won 0 of the last 5
21	Portland Timbers	29	9	6	14	-5	33	Portland Timbers won 0 of the last 5
22	Real Salt Lake	29	9	6	14	-5	33	Real Salt Lake won 1 of the last 5
23	Toronto FC	29	7	12	10	-11	33	Toronto FC won 1 of the last 5
24	DC United	28	7	12	9	-11	33	DC United won 1 of the last 5
25	Columbus Crew	29	9	5	15	-3	32	Columbus Crew won 3 of the last 5
26	Minnesota United FC	29	7	10	12	-9	31	Minnesota United FC won 0 of the last 5
27	Austin	29	7	10	12	-17	31	Austin won 1 of the last 5
28	Atlanta United FC	29	8	6	15	-12	30	Atlanta United FC won 2 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	29	6	6	17	-24	24	CF Montreal won 1 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	29	6	4	19	-37	22	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5