San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC

8th1st

02:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Nashville SC 48%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.28 – 1.77

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Nashville SC favoured against San Jose Earthquakes

Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes 27% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 24% and Nashville SC at 48%. The goal projection is 1.28 for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.77 for Nashville SC — a clear edge to Nashville SC on expected output. A combined 3.04 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes		Nashville SC
29	Played	29
13-8-8	W-D-L	20-6-3
1.62	Pts / game	2.28
1.76	Goals for / game	2.17
1.41	Goals against / game	0.76
55%	Over 2.5	62%
66%	BTTS	45%
24%	Clean sheets	48%
14%	Failed to score	17%
6-3-5	Home record	14-1-0
7-5-3	Away record	6-5-3
D2	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. San Jose Earthquakes · Nashville SC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	21.7
4.3	Shots on target	11.0
4.3	Corners	7.3
1.00	Cards	1.00
9.7	Fouls	12.0
44	Possession %	56
0.90	xG	4.60
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.7	Shots	10.3
8.0	Shots on target	3.0
6.7	Corners	3.7
1.00	Cards	0.33
12.7	Fouls	8.0
56	Possession %	44
1.59	xG	0.90
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
San Jose Earthquakes	Metric	Nashville SC
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.20	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.42	Expected goals (xG)	1.75 (better)
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	5.20
13.00	Total shots	15.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	5.60
49.4	Possession %	54.0 (better)
471 (better)	Passes	461
	Tackles
12.40 (better)	Fouls	13.00
0.80 (better)	Offsides	4.00
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

No previous meetings on record.

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	29	20	6	3	+41	66	Nashville SC won 4 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	15	7	7	+31	52	Vancouver Whitecaps won 1 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	29	14	10	5	+20	52	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	St. Louis City	29	14	9	6	+16	51	St. Louis City won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Dallas	29	14	8	7	+8	50	FC Dallas won 3 of the last 5
6	New England Revolution	29	15	4	10	+7	49	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
7	Chicago Fire	29	14	6	9	+9	48	Chicago Fire won 3 of the last 5
8	San Jose Earthquakes	29	13	8	8	+10	47	San Jose Earthquakes won 2 of the last 5
9	Charlotte	29	13	7	9	+8	46	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	29	13	7	9	+2	46	Houston Dynamo won 0 of the last 5
11	Los Angeles FC	30	12	9	9	+15	45	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
12	Philadelphia Union	29	13	6	10	+13	45	Philadelphia Union won 5 of the last 5
13	Seattle Sounders	29	11	8	10	+2	41	Seattle Sounders won 4 of the last 5
14	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	10	9	11	-9	39	Los Angeles Galaxy won 3 of the last 5
15	Colorado Rapids	29	11	5	13	0	38	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
16	Orlando City SC	29	11	5	13	-15	38	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
17	FC Cincinnati	28	9	9	10	-8	36	FC Cincinnati won 1 of the last 5
18	New York Red Bulls	29	10	6	13	-15	36	New York Red Bulls won 3 of the last 5
19	New York City FC	29	8	9	12	+2	33	New York City FC won 1 of the last 5
20	San Diego	29	8	9	12	-3	33	San Diego won 0 of the last 5
21	Portland Timbers	29	9	6	14	-5	33	Portland Timbers won 0 of the last 5
22	Real Salt Lake	29	9	6	14	-5	33	Real Salt Lake won 1 of the last 5
23	Toronto FC	29	7	12	10	-11	33	Toronto FC won 1 of the last 5
24	DC United	28	7	12	9	-11	33	DC United won 1 of the last 5
25	Columbus Crew	29	9	5	15	-3	32	Columbus Crew won 3 of the last 5
26	Minnesota United FC	29	7	10	12	-9	31	Minnesota United FC won 0 of the last 5
27	Austin	29	7	10	12	-17	31	Austin won 1 of the last 5
28	Atlanta United FC	29	8	6	15	-12	30	Atlanta United FC won 2 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	29	6	6	17	-24	24	CF Montreal won 1 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	29	6	4	19	-37	22	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5