Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego

14th20th

02:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: San Diego 38%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.63

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego: too close to call

Our model makes Los Angeles Galaxy 37% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 24% and San Diego at 38%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Los Angeles Galaxy against 1.63 for San Diego — almost nothing to San Diego on expected output. A combined 3.23 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego
Los Angeles Galaxy		San Diego
30	Played	29
10-9-11	W-D-L	8-9-12
1.30	Pts / game	1.14
1.37	Goals for / game	1.76
1.67	Goals against / game	1.86
63%	Over 2.5	69%
73%	BTTS	59%
17%	Clean sheets	24%
13%	Failed to score	17%
6-5-4	Home record	6-4-5
4-4-7	Away record	2-5-7
W1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Los Angeles Galaxy · San Diego

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	13.5
6.3	Shots on target	4.8
3.3	Corners	4.8
2.00	Cards	1.75
10.0	Fouls	11.3
42	Possession %	59
1.89	xG	2.15
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	17.5
4.3	Shots on target	7.3
4.3	Corners	3.8
2.67	Cards	2.00
16.0	Fouls	15.8
58	Possession %	41
1.69	xG	1.85
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Los Angeles Galaxy	Metric	San Diego
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
1.55	Expected goals (xG)	1.64 (better)
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.20
13.60 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	3.60
48.8	Possession %	54.8 (better)
454	Passes	583 (better)
	Tackles
11.20	Fouls	10.40 (better)
1.60	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Los Angeles Galaxy wins: 0
Draws: 0
San Diego wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

San Diego v Los Angeles Galaxy3–12026-08-30

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	29	20	6	3	+41	66	Nashville SC won 4 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	15	7	7	+31	52	Vancouver Whitecaps won 1 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	29	14	10	5	+20	52	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	St. Louis City	29	14	9	6	+16	51	St. Louis City won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Dallas	29	14	8	7	+8	50	FC Dallas won 3 of the last 5
6	New England Revolution	29	15	4	10	+7	49	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
7	Chicago Fire	29	14	6	9	+9	48	Chicago Fire won 3 of the last 5
8	San Jose Earthquakes	29	13	8	8	+10	47	San Jose Earthquakes won 2 of the last 5
9	Charlotte	29	13	7	9	+8	46	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	29	13	7	9	+2	46	Houston Dynamo won 0 of the last 5
11	Los Angeles FC	30	12	9	9	+15	45	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
12	Philadelphia Union	29	13	6	10	+13	45	Philadelphia Union won 5 of the last 5
13	Seattle Sounders	29	11	8	10	+2	41	Seattle Sounders won 4 of the last 5
14	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	10	9	11	-9	39	Los Angeles Galaxy won 3 of the last 5
15	Colorado Rapids	29	11	5	13	0	38	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
16	Orlando City SC	29	11	5	13	-15	38	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
17	FC Cincinnati	28	9	9	10	-8	36	FC Cincinnati won 1 of the last 5
18	New York Red Bulls	29	10	6	13	-15	36	New York Red Bulls won 3 of the last 5
19	New York City FC	29	8	9	12	+2	33	New York City FC won 1 of the last 5
20	San Diego	29	8	9	12	-3	33	San Diego won 0 of the last 5
21	Portland Timbers	29	9	6	14	-5	33	Portland Timbers won 0 of the last 5
22	Real Salt Lake	29	9	6	14	-5	33	Real Salt Lake won 1 of the last 5
23	Toronto FC	29	7	12	10	-11	33	Toronto FC won 1 of the last 5
24	DC United	28	7	12	9	-11	33	DC United won 1 of the last 5
25	Columbus Crew	29	9	5	15	-3	32	Columbus Crew won 3 of the last 5
26	Minnesota United FC	29	7	10	12	-9	31	Minnesota United FC won 0 of the last 5
27	Austin	29	7	10	12	-17	31	Austin won 1 of the last 5
28	Atlanta United FC	29	8	6	15	-12	30	Atlanta United FC won 2 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	29	6	6	17	-24	24	CF Montreal won 1 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	29	6	4	19	-37	22	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5