Ipswich v 
Bournemouth
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Bournemouth 51%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.26 – 1.88
Advised bets
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Bournemouth +0.25
Why this price?
Back Bournemouth +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Bournemouth starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 72% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.48. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Ipswich 1.26, Bournemouth 1.88.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bournemouth favoured against Ipswich
Our model makes Ipswich 25% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Bournemouth at 51%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Ipswich against 1.88 for Bournemouth — a substantial edge to Bournemouth on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-2 8%
- 0-1 8%
- 2-1 6%
This season
| Ipswich | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 3-2-4 | W-D-L | 3-3-3 |
| 1.22 | Pts / game | 1.33 |
| 1.56 | Goals for / game | 1.56 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 1.44 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 56% |
| 78% | BTTS | 56% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 2-1-1 | Home record | 2-2-1 |
| 1-1-3 | Away record | 1-1-2 |
| D2 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ipswich · Bournemouth
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.8 | Shots | 13.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 2.4 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 14.2 |
| 47 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.19 | xG | 2.04 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 15.8 | Shots | 10.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 2.25 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 53 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2.16 | xG | 0.96 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Ipswich | Metric | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 0.00 (better) |
| 1.05 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.60 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.40 | Shots on target | 5.20 (better) |
| 9.00 | Total shots | 16.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.40 | Corners | 4.80 (better) |
| 48.6 | Possession % | 52.6 (better) |
| 430 | Passes | 440 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.60 (better) | Fouls | 14.80 |
| 1.80 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →No previous meetings on record.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +10 | 27 | Arsenal won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Manchester City won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 | Brighton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Chelsea won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Everton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 | Brentford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 14 | Leeds won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 | Bournemouth won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 | Tottenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | Newcastle won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | Hull City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 | Ipswich won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Fulham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 | Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Coventry won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 | Manchester United won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | Sunderland won 0 of the last 5 |