South-Korea
K League 1 predictions
Every K League 1 match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the K League 1 page.
4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is FC Seoul, 51% against Ulsan Hyundai FC at home; the most evenly balanced game is Bucheon FC 1995 v Pohang Steelers (Bucheon FC 1995 34%, draw 30%, Pohang Steelers 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is FC Seoul v Ulsan Hyundai FC, at 3.05.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
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Match by match
FC Seoul v Ulsan Hyundai FCSun 8 Nov, 05:00
Our model makes FC Seoul 51%, the draw 24% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is FC Seoul to win at 51%. FC Seoul are 1st on 67 points from 34; Ulsan Hyundai FC are 2nd on 54 points from 34. FC Seoul have won one of their last five; Ulsan Hyundai FC have won two of their last five. FC Seoul have won three of the sides' last five meetings.
Daejeon Citizen v Incheon UnitedSun 8 Nov, 05:00
Our model makes Daejeon Citizen 37%, the draw 28% and Incheon United 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Daejeon Citizen to win at 37%. Daejeon Citizen are 3rd on 50 points from 34; Incheon United are 5th on 49 points from 34. Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Incheon United are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.
Gangwon FC v Jeonbuk MotorsSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Gangwon FC 32%, the draw 33% and Jeonbuk Motors 35%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (15%), 1.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 40%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 60%. Gangwon FC are 6th on 48 points from 34; Jeonbuk Motors are 4th on 49 points from 34. Gangwon FC have won one of their last five; Jeonbuk Motors have won one of their last five. Three of the sides' last five meetings were drawn.
Bucheon FC 1995 v Pohang SteelersSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Bucheon FC 1995 34%, the draw 30% and Pohang Steelers 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.22 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 62%. Bucheon FC 1995 are 11th on 32 points from 34; Pohang Steelers are 9th on 43 points from 34. Bucheon FC 1995 have lost all of their last five; Pohang Steelers have won one of their last five. Bucheon FC 1995 have won two of the sides' last three meetings.
The numbers this season
K League 1 has averaged 2.48 goals a game over 206 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 46% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 32% of matches, 34% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are K League 1 predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are K League 1 predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in K League 1?
- 32% of matches this season, over 206 played, with 34% drawn and 33% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.48 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 46%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.