Bucheon FC 1995 v 
Pohang Steelers
- Over 1.5
- 66%
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- Over 3.5
- 19%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Pohang Steelers 35%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.10 – 1.12
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bucheon FC 1995 v Pohang Steelers: too close to call
Our model makes Bucheon FC 1995 34% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 30% and Pohang Steelers at 35%. The goal projection is 1.10 for Bucheon FC 1995 against 1.12 for Pohang Steelers — almost nothing to Pohang Steelers on expected output. A combined 2.22 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 11%
- 0-1 11%
- 1-0 11%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Bucheon FC 1995 | Pohang Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 7-11-16 | W-D-L | 11-10-13 |
| 0.94 | Pts / game | 1.26 |
| 0.97 | Goals for / game | 0.91 |
| 1.44 | Goals against / game | 1.18 |
| 47% | Over 2.5 | 35% |
| 44% | BTTS | 38% |
| 26% | Clean sheets | 32% |
| 41% | Failed to score | 41% |
| 3-7-8 | Home record | 4-5-6 |
| 4-4-8 | Away record | 7-5-7 |
| L5 | Streak | D3 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bucheon FC 1995 · Pohang Steelers
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 6.8 | Shots | 6.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 2.5 |
| 2.3 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 1.50 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 42 | Possession % | 44 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 12.5 | Shots | 13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 0.75 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 58 | Possession % | 56 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Bucheon FC 1995 | Metric | Pohang Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 (better) | Goals scored | 0.40 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.79 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.39 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.50 (better) | Shots on target | 2.25 |
| 10.25 (better) | Total shots | 6.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | 6.50 (better) |
| 41.5 (better) | Possession % | 36.3 |
| 363 | Passes | 366 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.75 (better) | Fouls | 9.00 |
| 1.00 | Offsides | 1.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Bucheon FC 1995 wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Pohang Steelers wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 0%
- Bucheon FC 1995 v Pohang Steelers3–02026-08-22
- Bucheon FC 1995 v Pohang Steelers2–02026-05-17
- Pohang Steelers v Bucheon FC 19950–02026-03-22
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | +31 | 67 | FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | +6 | 54 | Ulsan Hyundai FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | +12 | 50 | Daejeon Citizen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | +10 | 49 | Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Incheon United | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | +9 | 49 | Incheon United won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Gangwon FC | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | +9 | 48 | Gangwon FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | +2 | 48 | Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 35 | 11 | 13 | 11 | -8 | 46 | FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -9 | 43 | Pohang Steelers won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35 | 6 | 20 | 9 | -7 | 38 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 32 | Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -39 | 23 | Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5 |