Argentina
Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Every Liga Profesional Argentina match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Liga Profesional Argentina page.
24 matches in the next 14 days, 14 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Boca Juniors, 58% against Talleres Cordoba at home; the most evenly balanced game is Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba (Defensa Y Justicia 36%, draw 28%, Instituto Cordoba 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba, at 2.52.
Every match, one prediction
Today
Liga Profesional Argentina1Prediction
Tomorrow
Sun 18 Oct
Mon 19 Oct
Liga Profesional Argentina2Prediction
Tue 20 Oct
Fri 23 Oct
Sat 24 Oct
Liga Profesional Argentina4PredictionSun 25 Oct
Liga Profesional Argentina4Prediction
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Match by match
Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto CordobaFri 16 Oct, 23:00
Our model makes Defensa Y Justicia 36%, the draw 28% and Instituto Cordoba 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Defensa Y Justicia to win at 36%. Defensa Y Justicia are 12th on 43 points from 28; Instituto Cordoba are 9th on 47 points from 28. Defensa Y Justicia have won three of their last five; Instituto Cordoba have won three of their last five.
Boca Juniors v Talleres CordobaSat 17 Oct, 01:30
Our model makes Boca Juniors 58%, the draw 26% and Talleres Cordoba 16%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (15%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 42%. The headline call is Boca Juniors to win at 58%. Boca Juniors are 5th on 52 points from 29; Talleres Cordoba are 21st on 35 points from 29. Boca Juniors are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Talleres Cordoba have won one of their last five. Boca Juniors have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Banfield v Argentinos JRSSat 17 Oct, 19:00
Our model makes Banfield 28%, the draw 29% and Argentinos JRS 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Banfield are 24th on 31 points from 28; Argentinos JRS are 2nd on 56 points from 31. Banfield have won one of their last five; Argentinos JRS have won one of their last five. Argentinos JRS have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Independ. Rivadavia v TigreSat 17 Oct, 21:30
Our model makes Independ. Rivadavia 48%, the draw 28% and Tigre 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Independ. Rivadavia to win at 48%. Independ. Rivadavia are 6th on 52 points from 29; Tigre are 22nd on 32 points from 28. Independ. Rivadavia have won two of their last five; Tigre have lost all of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Platense v LanusSat 17 Oct, 21:30
Our model makes Platense 29%, the draw 32% and Lanus 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.07 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 58%. Platense are 26th on 27 points from 28; Lanus are 11th on 44 points from 29. Platense are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Lanus are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia M.Sun 18 Oct, 00:00
Our model makes Velez Sarsfield 48%, the draw 28% and Gimnasia M. 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Velez Sarsfield to win at 48%. Velez Sarsfield are 8th on 49 points from 29; Gimnasia M. are 17th on 39 points from 28. Velez Sarsfield have won two of their last five; Gimnasia M. have won one of their last five.
Atletico Tucuman v Rosario CentralSun 18 Oct, 00:00
Our model makes Atletico Tucuman 27%, the draw 33% and Rosario Central 40%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (16%), 1.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 62%. Atletico Tucuman are 25th on 28 points from 28; Rosario Central are 3rd on 54 points from 31. Atletico Tucuman have won one of their last five; Rosario Central are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Racing Club v IndependienteSun 18 Oct, 18:45
Our model makes Racing Club 41%, the draw 28% and Independiente 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Racing Club to win at 41%. Racing Club are 20th on 36 points from 30; Independiente are 14th on 42 points from 29. Racing Club have won two of their last five; Independiente have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Estudiantes L.P. v San LorenzoSun 18 Oct, 22:00
Our model makes Estudiantes L.P. 48%, the draw 34% and San Lorenzo 18%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (20%), 1.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 30%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 70%. Estudiantes L.P. are 10th on 45 points from 29; San Lorenzo are 19th on 37 points from 29. Estudiantes L.P. have won two of their last five; San Lorenzo have won two of their last five.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v AldosiviSun 18 Oct, 22:00
Our model makes Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 29%, the draw 33% and Aldosivi 38%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (15%), 1.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 60%. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are 30th on 11 points from 28; Aldosivi are 29th on 16 points from 28. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have lost all of their last five; Aldosivi have won two of their last five.
Belgrano Cordoba v River PlateMon 19 Oct, 00:15
Our model makes Belgrano Cordoba 37%, the draw 33% and River Plate 30%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (15%), 1.95 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 61%. Belgrano Cordoba are 1st on 58 points from 32; River Plate are 4th on 53 points from 32. Belgrano Cordoba are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); River Plate have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Belgrano Cordoba wins, draws and River Plate wins.
Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de SantiagoMon 19 Oct, 23:00
Our model makes Newells Old Boys 42%, the draw 31% and Central Cordoba de Santiago 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 56%. Newells Old Boys are 23rd on 32 points from 28; Central Cordoba de Santiago are 27th on 26 points from 28. Newells Old Boys have won one of their last five; Central Cordoba de Santiago are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Sarmiento Junin v Barracas CentralMon 19 Oct, 23:00
Our model makes Sarmiento Junin 41%, the draw 30% and Barracas Central 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.20 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 55%. Sarmiento Junin are 16th on 39 points from 28; Barracas Central are 15th on 39 points from 28. Sarmiento Junin have won two of their last five; Barracas Central have won two of their last five. Sarmiento Junin have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa FeTue 20 Oct, 01:15
Our model makes Deportivo Riestra 34%, the draw 30% and Union Santa Fe 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Deportivo Riestra are 28th on 22 points from 28; Union Santa Fe are 18th on 37 points from 30. Deportivo Riestra are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Union Santa Fe have won one of their last five.
The numbers this season
Liga Profesional Argentina has averaged 2.14 goals a game over 436 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 37% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 27%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Liga Profesional Argentina predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Liga Profesional Argentina predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Liga Profesional Argentina?
- 42% of matches this season, over 436 played, with 30% drawn and 27% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.14 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 37%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.
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