Platense v Lanus

26th11th

20:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 62%
Over 2.5: 34%
Over 3.5: 16%
Both score: 42%

Model pick: Lanus 39%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.93 – 1.14

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketMembers

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lanus favoured against Platense

Our model makes Platense 29% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 32% and Lanus at 39%. The goal projection is 0.93 for Platense against 1.14 for Lanus — a slight edge to Lanus on expected output. A combined 2.07 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 34% and both teams to score at 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 1-0 11%; 0-2 8%

This season

Season records for Platense and Lanus
Platense		Lanus
28	Played	29
5-12-11	W-D-L	12-8-9
0.96	Pts / game	1.52
0.79	Goals for / game	1.14
1.18	Goals against / game	0.90
32%	Over 2.5	38%
46%	BTTS	34%
25%	Clean sheets	45%
46%	Failed to score	34%
2-6-6	Home record	7-5-3
3-6-5	Away record	5-3-6
D2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Platense · Lanus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.7	Shots	11.0
3.3	Shots on target	4.0
6.0	Corners	3.7
3.33	Cards	2.33
10.3	Fouls	10.7
54	Possession %	47
1.59	xG	1.65
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.0	Shots	14.0
4.0	Shots on target	3.7
3.0	Corners	5.7
1.33	Cards	1.67
9.3	Fouls	11.3
46	Possession %	53
0.44	xG	0.62
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Platense	Metric	Lanus
1.20	Goals scored	1.20
1.20	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
1.20 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.17
	Big chances
3.50	Shots on target	3.80 (better)
12.25 (better)	Total shots	10.60
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.00
52.0 (better)	Possession %	48.6
409	Passes	444 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	12.20 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Platense wins: 0
Draws: 1
Lanus wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Lanus v Platense0–02026-04-01
Lanus v Platense2–12025-09-20

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Belgrano Cordoba	32	16	10	6	+15	58	Belgrano Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	31	15	11	5	+11	56	Argentinos JRS won 1 of the last 5
3	Rosario Central	31	15	9	7	+13	54	Rosario Central won 3 of the last 5
4	River Plate	32	16	5	11	+14	53	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Boca Juniors	29	13	13	3	+19	52	Boca Juniors won 3 of the last 5
6	Independ. Rivadavia	29	15	7	7	+9	52	Independ. Rivadavia won 2 of the last 5
7	Gimnasia L.P.	31	15	6	10	0	51	Gimnasia L.P. won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	29	12	13	4	+9	49	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	14	5	9	+9	47	Instituto Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	13	6	10	+13	45	Estudiantes L.P. won 2 of the last 5
11	Lanus	29	12	8	9	+7	44	Lanus won 4 of the last 5
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	11	10	7	+4	43	Defensa Y Justicia won 3 of the last 5
13	Huracan	31	10	13	8	+4	43	Huracan won 3 of the last 5
14	Independiente	29	11	9	9	+1	42	Independiente won 2 of the last 5
15	Barracas Central	28	10	9	9	+1	39	Barracas Central won 2 of the last 5
16	Sarmiento Junin	28	12	3	13	-4	39	Sarmiento Junin won 2 of the last 5
17	Gimnasia M.	28	11	6	11	-5	39	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
18	Union Santa Fe	30	10	7	13	-1	37	Union Santa Fe won 1 of the last 5
19	San Lorenzo	29	9	10	10	-6	37	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
20	Racing Club	30	9	9	12	-3	36	Racing Club won 2 of the last 5
21	Talleres Cordoba	29	9	8	12	-4	35	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
22	Tigre	28	7	11	10	+1	32	Tigre won 0 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	28	7	11	10	-10	32	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Banfield	28	8	7	13	-6	31	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	6	10	12	-5	28	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
26	Platense	28	5	12	11	-11	27	Platense won 0 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	6	8	14	-16	26	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	28	3	13	12	-10	22	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	28	2	10	16	-20	16	Aldosivi won 2 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	28	2	5	21	-29	11	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 0 of the last 5