Belgrano Cordoba v River Plate

1st4th

23:15 UTC

Over 1.5: 59%
Over 2.5: 31%
Over 3.5: 13%
Both score: 39%

Model pick: Belgrano Cordoba 37%
Likely score: 0-0 15%
Expected goals: 1.04 – 0.91

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Belgrano Cordoba v River Plate: too close to call

Our model makes Belgrano Cordoba 37% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 33% and River Plate at 30%. The goal projection is 1.04 for Belgrano Cordoba against 0.91 for River Plate — a slight edge to Belgrano Cordoba on expected output. A combined 1.95 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 31% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 1-0 14%; 0-1 12%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Belgrano Cordoba and River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba		River Plate
32	Played	32
16-10-6	W-D-L	16-5-11
1.81	Pts / game	1.66
1.19	Goals for / game	1.34
0.72	Goals against / game	0.91
31%	Over 2.5	34%
41%	BTTS	41%
50%	Clean sheets	34%
25%	Failed to score	28%
8-3-4	Home record	10-2-7
8-7-2	Away record	6-3-4
W3	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Belgrano Cordoba · River Plate

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	25.0
5.3	Shots on target	8.0
4.7	Corners	10.5
3.00	Cards	1.00
12.7	Fouls	10.5
50	Possession %	73
1.51	xG	1.81
3 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.7	Shots	6.0
5.0	Shots on target	2.0
4.0	Corners	3.5
2.00	Cards	2.50
13.0	Fouls	17.5
50	Possession %	27
1.32	xG	0.67
3 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Belgrano Cordoba	Metric	River Plate
1.00	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.81	Expected goals (xG)	1.92 (better)
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	6.80 (better)
14.80	Total shots	20.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.40 (better)	Corners	5.00
60.8	Possession %	68.8 (better)
495	Passes	608 (better)
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	10.20
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Belgrano Cordoba wins: 1
Draws: 0
River Plate wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 50%

River Plate v Belgrano Cordoba2–32026-05-24
River Plate v Belgrano Cordoba3–02026-04-05

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Belgrano Cordoba	32	16	10	6	+15	58	Belgrano Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	31	15	11	5	+11	56	Argentinos JRS won 1 of the last 5
3	Rosario Central	31	15	9	7	+13	54	Rosario Central won 3 of the last 5
4	River Plate	32	16	5	11	+14	53	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Boca Juniors	29	13	13	3	+19	52	Boca Juniors won 3 of the last 5
6	Independ. Rivadavia	29	15	7	7	+9	52	Independ. Rivadavia won 2 of the last 5
7	Gimnasia L.P.	31	15	6	10	0	51	Gimnasia L.P. won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	29	12	13	4	+9	49	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	14	5	9	+9	47	Instituto Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	13	6	10	+13	45	Estudiantes L.P. won 2 of the last 5
11	Lanus	29	12	8	9	+7	44	Lanus won 4 of the last 5
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	11	10	7	+4	43	Defensa Y Justicia won 3 of the last 5
13	Huracan	31	10	13	8	+4	43	Huracan won 3 of the last 5
14	Independiente	29	11	9	9	+1	42	Independiente won 2 of the last 5
15	Barracas Central	28	10	9	9	+1	39	Barracas Central won 2 of the last 5
16	Sarmiento Junin	28	12	3	13	-4	39	Sarmiento Junin won 2 of the last 5
17	Gimnasia M.	28	11	6	11	-5	39	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
18	Union Santa Fe	30	10	7	13	-1	37	Union Santa Fe won 1 of the last 5
19	San Lorenzo	29	9	10	10	-6	37	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
20	Racing Club	30	9	9	12	-3	36	Racing Club won 2 of the last 5
21	Talleres Cordoba	29	9	8	12	-4	35	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
22	Tigre	28	7	11	10	+1	32	Tigre won 0 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	28	7	11	10	-10	32	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Banfield	28	8	7	13	-6	31	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	6	10	12	-5	28	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
26	Platense	28	5	12	11	-11	27	Platense won 0 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	6	8	14	-16	26	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	28	3	13	12	-10	22	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	28	2	10	16	-20	16	Aldosivi won 2 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	28	2	5	21	-29	11	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 0 of the last 5