Liga Profesional Argentina · Review
Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura, round 12 review: results, xG and what the model said
Every Liga Profesional Argentina result from Clausura, round 12 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura, round 12 (12 October 2026), is complete: two matches, 3 goals (1.50 a game), two home wins, no draws and no away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in no of the two and both teams scored in no.
The result the model rated least likely was Lanus's win in Lanus v Velez Sarsfield (2–0), which it had at 33%; the one it rated most likely was Gimnasia M.'s win in Gimnasia M. v Newells Old Boys (1–0), at 44%.
After the round, Belgrano Cordoba lead on 58 points, two points clear of Argentinos JRS, with Rosario Central third on 54. The bottom three are Deportivo Riestra (22), Aldosivi (16), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (11).
Match by match
Lanus 2–0 Velez SarsfieldMon 12 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Lanus 33%, the draw 32% and Velez Sarsfield 35%, with Velez Sarsfield favoured; it put Lanus winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.65–0.62: Lanus created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 59%, came in. Pick published: Velez Sarsfield at 3.65 — lost.
Gimnasia M. 1–0 Newells Old BoysMon 12 Oct, 22:30
Before kick-off the model had Gimnasia M. 44%, the draw 29% and Newells Old Boys 27%, so Gimnasia M. winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.37–2.38: Newells Old Boys created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 59%, came in. Pick published: Gimnasia M. -0.25 at 1.93 — won.
The numbers this season
Liga Profesional Argentina has averaged 2.14 goals a game over 436 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 37% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 27%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these figures
The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.
The results
Each result with the headline call the model published and whether it came in.
Liga Profesional Argentina2Prediction
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.