Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago

23rd27th

22:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 37%
Over 3.5: 17%
Both score: 44%

Model pick: Newells Old Boys 42%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.23 – 0.94

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Newells Old Boys favoured against Central Cordoba de Santiago

Our model makes Newells Old Boys 42% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 31% and Central Cordoba de Santiago at 27%. The goal projection is 1.23 for Newells Old Boys against 0.94 for Central Cordoba de Santiago — a clear edge to Newells Old Boys on expected output. A combined 2.17 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 12%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Newells Old Boys and Central Cordoba de Santiago
Newells Old Boys		Central Cordoba de Santiago
28	Played	28
7-11-10	W-D-L	6-8-14
1.14	Pts / game	0.93
0.93	Goals for / game	0.75
1.29	Goals against / game	1.32
32%	Over 2.5	32%
50%	BTTS	36%
25%	Clean sheets	29%
36%	Failed to score	50%
4-7-3	Home record	5-3-6
3-4-7	Away record	1-5-8
L1	Streak	D3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Newells Old Boys · Central Cordoba de Santiago

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.3	Shots	16.0
2.7	Shots on target	5.5
3.7	Corners	5.5
1.33	Cards	2.00
12.7	Fouls	12.5
50	Possession %	50
2.38	xG	3.01
3 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.3	Shots	11.0
2.3	Shots on target	5.0
4.0	Corners	2.5
3.33	Cards	1.00
13.7	Fouls	10.5
50	Possession %	50
0.37	xG	2.47
3 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Newells Old Boys	Metric	Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.60	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.03	Expected goals (xG)	1.99 (better)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	4.60 (better)
9.20	Total shots	19.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.80	Corners	7.20 (better)
45.4	Possession %	48.8 (better)
360	Passes	376 (better)
	Tackles
14.20	Fouls	10.00 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Newells Old Boys wins: 1
Draws: 1
Central Cordoba de Santiago wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

Central Cordoba de Santiago v Newells Old Boys1–32026-04-05
Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago1–12025-08-09

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Belgrano Cordoba	32	16	10	6	+15	58	Belgrano Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	31	15	11	5	+11	56	Argentinos JRS won 1 of the last 5
3	Rosario Central	31	15	9	7	+13	54	Rosario Central won 3 of the last 5
4	River Plate	32	16	5	11	+14	53	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Boca Juniors	29	13	13	3	+19	52	Boca Juniors won 3 of the last 5
6	Independ. Rivadavia	29	15	7	7	+9	52	Independ. Rivadavia won 2 of the last 5
7	Gimnasia L.P.	31	15	6	10	0	51	Gimnasia L.P. won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	29	12	13	4	+9	49	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	28	14	5	9	+9	47	Instituto Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
10	Estudiantes L.P.	29	13	6	10	+13	45	Estudiantes L.P. won 2 of the last 5
11	Lanus	29	12	8	9	+7	44	Lanus won 4 of the last 5
12	Defensa Y Justicia	28	11	10	7	+4	43	Defensa Y Justicia won 3 of the last 5
13	Huracan	31	10	13	8	+4	43	Huracan won 3 of the last 5
14	Independiente	29	11	9	9	+1	42	Independiente won 2 of the last 5
15	Barracas Central	28	10	9	9	+1	39	Barracas Central won 2 of the last 5
16	Sarmiento Junin	28	12	3	13	-4	39	Sarmiento Junin won 2 of the last 5
17	Gimnasia M.	28	11	6	11	-5	39	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
18	Union Santa Fe	30	10	7	13	-1	37	Union Santa Fe won 1 of the last 5
19	San Lorenzo	29	9	10	10	-6	37	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
20	Racing Club	30	9	9	12	-3	36	Racing Club won 2 of the last 5
21	Talleres Cordoba	29	9	8	12	-4	35	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
22	Tigre	28	7	11	10	+1	32	Tigre won 0 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	28	7	11	10	-10	32	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Banfield	28	8	7	13	-6	31	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
25	Atletico Tucuman	28	6	10	12	-5	28	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
26	Platense	28	5	12	11	-11	27	Platense won 0 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	28	6	8	14	-16	26	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	28	3	13	12	-10	22	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	28	2	10	16	-20	16	Aldosivi won 2 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	28	2	5	21	-29	11	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 0 of the last 5