Parma v Bologna

16th1–28th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Parma		Bologna
11	Shots	33
2	Shots on target	10
1	Corners	15
11	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
219	Passes	475
31%	Possession %	69%
1.52	xG	3.64

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Bologna 46%
Likely score: 0-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.90 – 1.34

Advised bets

Free pick

Bologna +0.25

1.58Bet365 · fair 1.41 · qualifies at 1.46+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Bologna +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.58 with Bet365 — Bologna starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 71% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 70%; we judge it at 71%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.41. The offered 1.58 implies only 63%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Parma 0.90, Bologna 1.34.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Members

Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

Unlock every pick

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bologna favoured against Parma

Our model makes Parma 25% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 29% and Bologna at 46%. The goal projection is 0.90 for Parma against 1.34 for Bologna — a clear edge to Bologna on expected output. A combined 2.24 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 14%; 1-1 13%; 0-0 11%; 0-2 10%; 1-0 9%

This season

Season records for Parma and Bologna
Parma		Bologna
11	Played	11
2-2-7	W-D-L	5-2-4
0.73	Pts / game	1.55
0.82	Goals for / game	1.45
1.55	Goals against / game	1.27
64%	Over 2.5	55%
45%	BTTS	64%
18%	Clean sheets	9%
45%	Failed to score	27%
1-2-3	Home record	1-2-2
1-0-4	Away record	4-0-2
L1	Streak	W4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Parma · Bologna

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	12.4
3.4	Shots on target	4.6
3.1	Corners	4.4
1.54	Cards	2.00
10.3	Fouls	12.4
38	Possession %	46
0.99	xG	1.64
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
20.4	Shots	11.6
5.9	Shots on target	3.6
7.3	Corners	4.8
1.38	Cards	2.42
11.4	Fouls	15.0
62	Possession %	54
2.21	xG	1.55
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Parma	Metric	Bologna
0.60	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.91	Expected goals (xG)	1.53 (better)
	Big chances
3.60	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
11.40 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	3.00
41.8 (better)	Possession %	39.0
368 (better)	Passes	344
	Tackles
11.40 (better)	Fouls	12.60
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Parma wins: 1
Draws: 0
Bologna wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.75
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 75%

Parma v Bologna1–22026-11-07
Bologna v Parma0–12026-02-08
Bologna v Parma2–12025-12-04
Parma v Bologna1–32025-11-02

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	10	9	1	0	+16	28	Lazio won 5 of the last 5
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	10	7	3	0	+18	24	AS Roma won 3 of the last 5
4	Como	10	7	2	1	+10	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
5	AC Milan	10	6	3	1	+9	21	AC Milan won 3 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+4	14	Napoli won 2 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Genoa	10	4	1	5	-4	13	Genoa won 4 of the last 5
13	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	10	2	2	6	-8	8	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	10	2	1	7	-7	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5