Predicted Edge

Scotland

Scottish Premiership predictions

Every Scottish Premiership match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Scottish Premiership page.

12 matches in the next 14 days, 6 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Motherwell, 52% against Kilmarnock away; the most evenly balanced game is ST Johnstone v Dundee Utd (ST Johnstone 44%, draw 26%, Dundee Utd 30%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Dundee v Rangers, at 3.27.

Every match, one prediction

Tomorrow

Premiership5Prediction

Sun 18 Oct

Premiership1Prediction

Sat 24 Oct

Premiership4Prediction

Sun 25 Oct

Premiership2Prediction

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Match by match

Kilmarnock v MotherwellSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Kilmarnock 24%, the draw 24% and Motherwell 52%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Motherwell to win at 52%. Kilmarnock are 12th on 5 points from 8; Motherwell are 9th on 8 points from 8. Kilmarnock have won one of their last five; Motherwell have won one of their last five. Motherwell have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Aberdeen v ST MirrenSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Aberdeen 43%, the draw 30% and ST Mirren 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 63%. Aberdeen are 8th on 8 points from 8; ST Mirren are 7th on 10 points from 8. Aberdeen have won one of their last five; ST Mirren have won one of their last five. ST Mirren have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

ST Johnstone v Dundee UtdSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes ST Johnstone 44%, the draw 26% and Dundee Utd 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. ST Johnstone are 5th on 11 points from 8; Dundee Utd are 6th on 11 points from 8. ST Johnstone have won two of their last five; Dundee Utd have won three of their last five.

Hibernian v FalkirkSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Hibernian 48%, the draw 26% and Falkirk 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Hibernian to win at 48%. Hibernian are 10th on 7 points from 8; Falkirk are 11th on 6 points from 8. Hibernian are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Falkirk have won one of their last five. Hibernian have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

Dundee v RangersSat 17 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Dundee 27%, the draw 23% and Rangers 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Dundee are 4th on 13 points from 8; Rangers are 2nd on 19 points from 8. Dundee have won two of their last five; Rangers have won all of their last five. Rangers have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Celtic v Heart Of MidlothianSun 18 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Celtic 46%, the draw 25% and Heart Of Midlothian 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Celtic are 1st on 21 points from 8; Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 8. Celtic have won four of their last five; Heart Of Midlothian have won three of their last five. Heart Of Midlothian have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

The numbers this season

Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.56 goals a game over 48 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 52% of them and both sides scoring in 50%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 19% have been drawn and away sides have won 42%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Scottish Premiership predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Scottish Premiership predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Scottish Premiership?
40% of matches this season, over 48 played, with 19% drawn and 42% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.56 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 52%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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