Kilmarnock v 
Motherwell
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Both score
- 60%
- Model pick
- Motherwell 52%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.20 – 1.85
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketMembers
Every market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Motherwell favoured against Kilmarnock
Our model makes Kilmarnock 24% to win this Premiership fixture, with the draw at 24% and Motherwell at 52%. The goal projection is 1.20 for Kilmarnock against 1.85 for Motherwell — a substantial edge to Motherwell on expected output. A combined 3.06 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-1 8%
- 0-2 8%
- 2-1 6%
This season
| Kilmarnock | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Played | 8 |
| 1-2-5 | W-D-L | 2-2-4 |
| 0.63 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 0.88 | Goals for / game | 1.13 |
| 2.25 | Goals against / game | 1.63 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 63% |
| 50% | BTTS | 38% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 0-1-3 | Home record | 1-1-2 |
| 1-1-2 | Away record | 1-1-2 |
| L1 | Streak | L4 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kilmarnock · Motherwell
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.0 | Shots | 8.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 2.0 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 3.0 |
| 40 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.21 | xG | 1.09 |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 18.0 | Shots | 25.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 15.0 |
| 8.0 | Corners | 9.0 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 4.0 |
| 60 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.50 | xG | 2.88 |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Kilmarnock | Metric | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 0.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 5.40 (better) |
| 9.00 | Total shots | 16.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 | Corners | 7.00 (better) |
| 43.0 | Possession % | 63.4 (better) |
| 360 | Passes | 617 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.40 | Fouls | 9.60 (better) |
| 1.67 | Offsides | 1.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 1.50 (better) |
| 0.67 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Kilmarnock wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Motherwell wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 67%
- Motherwell v Kilmarnock4–02026-01-24
- Kilmarnock v Motherwell1–32025-11-22
- Motherwell v Kilmarnock2–22025-08-30
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +12 | 21 | Celtic won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 19 | Rangers won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +11 | 16 | Heart Of Midlothian won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 13 | Dundee won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | ST Johnstone won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 | Dundee Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 | ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 | Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 | Motherwell won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 | Hibernian won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 | Falkirk won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 | Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5 |