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Scottish Premiership predictions: matchweek 9 (17–18 October 2026)
Every Scottish Premiership match in matchweek 9 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Scottish Premiership, matchweek 9: six matches, played across 17–18 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Motherwell, 52% to beat Kilmarnock away; the most evenly balanced game is ST Johnstone v Dundee Utd (ST Johnstone 44%, draw 26%, Dundee Utd 30%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Dundee v Rangers, at 3.27; the tightest looks Aberdeen v ST Mirren, at 2.17.
Going into the round, Celtic lead on 21 points, two points clear of Rangers, with Heart Of Midlothian third on 16. The bottom three are Hibernian (7), Falkirk (6), Kilmarnock (5).
The numbers this season
Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.56 goals a game over 48 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 52% of them and both sides scoring in 50%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 19% have been drawn and away sides have won 42%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Aberdeen v ST MirrenSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Aberdeen 43%, the draw 30% and ST Mirren 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 63%. Aberdeen are 8th on 8 points from 8; ST Mirren are 7th on 10 points from 8. Aberdeen have won one of their last five; ST Mirren have won one of their last five. ST Mirren have won two of the sides' last four meetings.
Hibernian v FalkirkSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Hibernian 48%, the draw 26% and Falkirk 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Hibernian to win at 48%. Hibernian are 10th on 7 points from 8; Falkirk are 11th on 6 points from 8. Hibernian are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Falkirk have won one of their last five. Hibernian have won two of the sides' last four meetings.
Kilmarnock v MotherwellSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Kilmarnock 24%, the draw 24% and Motherwell 52%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Motherwell to win at 52%. Kilmarnock are 12th on 5 points from 8; Motherwell are 9th on 8 points from 8. Kilmarnock have won one of their last five; Motherwell have won one of their last five. Motherwell have won two of the sides' last three meetings.
ST Johnstone v Dundee UtdSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes ST Johnstone 44%, the draw 26% and Dundee Utd 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. ST Johnstone are 5th on 11 points from 8; Dundee Utd are 6th on 11 points from 8. ST Johnstone have won two of their last five; Dundee Utd have won three of their last five.
Dundee v RangersSat 17 Oct, 20:00
Our model makes Dundee 27%, the draw 23% and Rangers 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Dundee are 4th on 13 points from 8; Rangers are 2nd on 19 points from 8. Dundee have won two of their last five; Rangers have won all of their last five. Rangers have won two of the sides' last three meetings.
Celtic v Heart Of MidlothianSun 18 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Celtic 46%, the draw 25% and Heart Of Midlothian 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Celtic are 1st on 21 points from 8; Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 8. Celtic have won four of their last five; Heart Of Midlothian have won three of their last five. Heart Of Midlothian have won two of the sides' last four meetings.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published one pick on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
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Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.