Mexico
Liga MX predictions
Every Liga MX match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Liga MX page.
25 matches in the next 14 days, 20 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Cruz Azul, 68% against FC Juarez at home; the most evenly balanced game is Monterrey v CF Pachuca (Monterrey 37%, draw 27%, CF Pachuca 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Cruz Azul v FC Juarez, at 3.77.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
Liga MX5Prediction
Sun 18 Oct
Liga MX3Prediction
Mon 19 Oct
Wed 21 Oct
Liga MX4PredictionThu 22 Oct
Liga MX5PredictionSat 24 Oct
Sun 25 Oct
Liga MX4Prediction1 more member pick on these Liga MX matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →
Match by match
Necaxa v AtlasSat 17 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Necaxa 36%, the draw 26% and Atlas 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 11; Atlas are 6th on 18 points from 11. Necaxa are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Atlas have won one of their last five. Atlas have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - PumasSat 17 Oct, 04:00
Our model makes Atlante FC 35%, the draw 25% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 11; U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 12th on 13 points from 11. Atlante FC have won one of their last five; U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won one of their last five.
Club Tijuana v PueblaSat 17 Oct, 04:00
Our model makes Club Tijuana 53%, the draw 25% and Puebla 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Club Tijuana to win at 53%. Club Tijuana are 8th on 15 points from 10; Puebla are 9th on 15 points from 11. Club Tijuana have won one of their last five; Puebla have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Santos Laguna v Club QueretaroSun 18 Oct, 00:00
Our model makes Santos Laguna 30%, the draw 28% and Club Queretaro 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Club Queretaro to win at 43%. Santos Laguna are 14th on 13 points from 11; Club Queretaro are 3rd on 20 points from 10. Santos Laguna have won four of their last five; Club Queretaro are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Guadalajara Chivas v Tigres UANLSun 18 Oct, 00:07
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas 51%, the draw 25% and Tigres UANL 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Guadalajara Chivas to win at 51%. Guadalajara Chivas are 4th on 19 points from 11; Tigres UANL are 13th on 13 points from 11. Guadalajara Chivas have won two of their last five; Tigres UANL have won two of their last five. Tigres UANL have won two of the sides' last four meetings.
Toluca v Atletico San LuisSun 18 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Toluca 62%, the draw 20% and Atletico San Luis 18%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Toluca to win at 62%. Toluca are 2nd on 20 points from 11; Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11. Toluca have won two of their last five; Atletico San Luis have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Leon v Club AmericaSun 18 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Leon 29%, the draw 25% and Club America 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Club America to win at 45%. Leon are 5th on 18 points from 11; Club America are 1st on 21 points from 10. Leon have won two of their last five; Club America have won two of their last five. Club America have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Cruz Azul v FC JuarezSun 18 Oct, 04:10
Our model makes Cruz Azul 68%, the draw 17% and FC Juarez 14%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Cruz Azul to win at 68%. Cruz Azul are 7th on 17 points from 11; FC Juarez are 18th on 4 points from 11. Cruz Azul have won two of their last five; FC Juarez have won one of their last five. Cruz Azul have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Monterrey v CF PachucaMon 19 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Monterrey 37%, the draw 27% and CF Pachuca 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Monterrey are 10th on 14 points from 10; CF Pachuca are 11th on 13 points from 11. Monterrey have won one of their last five; CF Pachuca have won two of their last five. CF Pachuca have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Guadalajara Chivas v NecaxaWed 21 Oct, 01:07
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas 67%, the draw 19% and Necaxa 14%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Guadalajara Chivas to win at 67%. Guadalajara Chivas are 4th on 19 points from 11; Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 11. Guadalajara Chivas have won two of their last five; Necaxa are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Atletico San Luis v Club QueretaroWed 21 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Atletico San Luis 33%, the draw 27% and Club Queretaro 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11; Club Queretaro are 3rd on 20 points from 10. Atletico San Luis have won two of their last five; Club Queretaro are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Atletico San Luis wins, draws and Club Queretaro wins.
FC Juarez v Atlante FCWed 21 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes FC Juarez 36%, the draw 25% and Atlante FC 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 60%. FC Juarez are 18th on 4 points from 11; Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 11. FC Juarez have won one of their last five; Atlante FC have won one of their last five.
Tigres UANL v LeonWed 21 Oct, 04:00
Our model makes Tigres UANL 53%, the draw 25% and Leon 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Tigres UANL to win at 53%. Tigres UANL are 13th on 13 points from 11; Leon are 5th on 18 points from 11. Tigres UANL have won two of their last five; Leon have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Atlas v Club AmericaThu 22 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Atlas 32%, the draw 26% and Club America 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.86 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Atlas are 6th on 18 points from 11; Club America are 1st on 21 points from 10. Atlas have won one of their last five; Club America have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Atlas wins, draws and Club America wins.
Toluca v Club TijuanaThu 22 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Toluca 54%, the draw 23% and Club Tijuana 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Toluca to win at 54%. Toluca are 2nd on 20 points from 11; Club Tijuana are 8th on 15 points from 10. Toluca have won two of their last five; Club Tijuana have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Puebla v MonterreyThu 22 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Puebla 34%, the draw 27% and Monterrey 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Puebla are 9th on 15 points from 11; Monterrey are 10th on 14 points from 10. Puebla have won one of their last five; Monterrey have won one of their last five. Monterrey have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
CF Pachuca v Cruz AzulThu 22 Oct, 04:00
Our model makes CF Pachuca 41%, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 57%. CF Pachuca are 11th on 13 points from 11; Cruz Azul are 7th on 17 points from 11. CF Pachuca have won two of their last five; Cruz Azul have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between CF Pachuca wins, draws and Cruz Azul wins.
Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - PumasThu 22 Oct, 04:00
Our model makes Santos Laguna 31%, the draw 25% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 60%. Santos Laguna are 14th on 13 points from 11; U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 12th on 13 points from 11. Santos Laguna have won four of their last five; U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Santos Laguna wins, draws and U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins.
Necaxa v FC JuarezSat 24 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Necaxa 50%, the draw 23% and FC Juarez 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.48 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 67%. Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 11; FC Juarez are 18th on 4 points from 11. Necaxa are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); FC Juarez have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Atlante FC v Atletico San LuisSat 24 Oct, 04:00
Our model makes Atlante FC 43%, the draw 25% and Atletico San Luis 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 59%. Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 11; Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11. Atlante FC have won one of their last five; Atletico San Luis have won two of their last five.
The numbers this season
Liga MX has averaged 2.97 goals a game over 97 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 53% of them and both sides scoring in 61%. Home sides have won 39% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 34%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Liga MX predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Liga MX predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Liga MX?
- 39% of matches this season, over 97 played, with 27% drawn and 34% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.97 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 53%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.
