Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketMembers

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Guadalajara Chivas favoured against Necaxa

Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas 67% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 19% and Necaxa at 14%. The goal projection is 2.38 for Guadalajara Chivas against 1.01 for Necaxa — a commanding edge to Guadalajara Chivas on expected output. A combined 3.39 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Guadalajara Chivas is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores

2-1 10%

2-0 10%

1-1 9%

3-1 8%

1-0 8%

This season

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Guadalajara Chivas · Necaxa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Form comparison

Head to headFull record →

Guadalajara Chivas wins

1

Draws

1

Necaxa wins

0

Goals / game

2.00

Over 2.5

50%

Both score

50%

• Necaxa v Guadalajara Chivas0–02026-04-23
• Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa3–12025-09-24