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Liga MX predictions: Apertura, round 13 (21–22 October 2026)

Every Liga MX match in Apertura, round 13 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga MX, Apertura, round 13: nine matches, played across 21–22 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Guadalajara Chivas, 67% to beat Necaxa at home; the most evenly balanced game is FC Juarez v Atlante FC (FC Juarez 36%, draw 25%, Atlante FC 39%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa, at 3.39; the tightest looks Atletico San Luis v Club Queretaro, at 2.71.

Going into the round, Club America lead on 21 points, one point clear of Toluca, with Club Queretaro third on 20. The bottom three are Atlante FC (11), Necaxa (9), FC Juarez (4).

The numbers this season

Liga MX has averaged 2.97 goals a game over 97 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 53% of them and both sides scoring in 61%. Home sides have won 39% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 34%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Guadalajara Chivas v NecaxaWed 21 Oct, 01:07

Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas 67%, the draw 19% and Necaxa 14%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Guadalajara Chivas to win at 67%. Guadalajara Chivas are 4th on 19 points from 11; Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 11. Guadalajara Chivas have won two of their last five; Necaxa are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Atletico San Luis v Club QueretaroWed 21 Oct, 02:00

Our model makes Atletico San Luis 33%, the draw 27% and Club Queretaro 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11; Club Queretaro are 3rd on 20 points from 10. Atletico San Luis have won two of their last five; Club Queretaro are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Atletico San Luis wins, draws and Club Queretaro wins.

FC Juarez v Atlante FCWed 21 Oct, 02:00

Our model makes FC Juarez 36%, the draw 25% and Atlante FC 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 60%. FC Juarez are 18th on 4 points from 11; Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 11. FC Juarez have won one of their last five; Atlante FC have won one of their last five.

Tigres UANL v LeonWed 21 Oct, 04:00

Our model makes Tigres UANL 53%, the draw 25% and Leon 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Tigres UANL to win at 53%. Tigres UANL are 13th on 13 points from 11; Leon are 5th on 18 points from 11. Tigres UANL have won two of their last five; Leon have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Atlas v Club AmericaThu 22 Oct, 02:00

Our model makes Atlas 32%, the draw 26% and Club America 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.86 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Atlas are 6th on 18 points from 11; Club America are 1st on 21 points from 10. Atlas have won one of their last five; Club America have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Atlas wins, draws and Club America wins.

Puebla v MonterreyThu 22 Oct, 02:00

Our model makes Puebla 34%, the draw 27% and Monterrey 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Puebla are 9th on 15 points from 11; Monterrey are 10th on 14 points from 10. Puebla have won one of their last five; Monterrey have won one of their last five. Monterrey have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Toluca v Club TijuanaThu 22 Oct, 02:00

Our model makes Toluca 54%, the draw 23% and Club Tijuana 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Toluca to win at 54%. Toluca are 2nd on 20 points from 11; Club Tijuana are 8th on 15 points from 10. Toluca have won two of their last five; Club Tijuana have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

CF Pachuca v Cruz AzulThu 22 Oct, 04:00

Our model makes CF Pachuca 41%, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 57%. CF Pachuca are 11th on 13 points from 11; Cruz Azul are 7th on 17 points from 11. CF Pachuca have won two of their last five; Cruz Azul have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between CF Pachuca wins, draws and Cruz Azul wins.

Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - PumasThu 22 Oct, 04:00

Our model makes Santos Laguna 31%, the draw 25% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 60%. Santos Laguna are 14th on 13 points from 11; U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 12th on 13 points from 11. Santos Laguna have won four of their last five; U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Santos Laguna wins, draws and U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.