Liga MX · Preview
Liga MX predictions: Apertura, round 12 (17–19 October 2026)
Every Liga MX match in Apertura, round 12 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Liga MX, Apertura, round 12: nine matches, played across 17–19 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Cruz Azul, 68% to beat FC Juarez at home; the most evenly balanced game is Monterrey v CF Pachuca (Monterrey 37%, draw 27%, CF Pachuca 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Cruz Azul v FC Juarez, at 3.77; the tightest looks Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro, at 2.56.
Going into the round, Club America lead on 21 points, one point clear of Toluca, with Club Queretaro third on 20. The bottom three are Atlante FC (11), Necaxa (9), FC Juarez (4).
The numbers this season
Liga MX has averaged 2.97 goals a game over 97 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 53% of them and both sides scoring in 61%. Home sides have won 39% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 34%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Necaxa v AtlasSat 17 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Necaxa 36%, the draw 26% and Atlas 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 11; Atlas are 6th on 18 points from 11. Necaxa are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Atlas have won one of their last five. Atlas have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Atlante FC v U.N.A.M. - PumasSat 17 Oct, 04:00
Our model makes Atlante FC 35%, the draw 25% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 11; U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 12th on 13 points from 11. Atlante FC have won one of their last five; U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won one of their last five.
Club Tijuana v PueblaSat 17 Oct, 04:00
Our model makes Club Tijuana 53%, the draw 25% and Puebla 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Club Tijuana to win at 53%. Club Tijuana are 8th on 15 points from 10; Puebla are 9th on 15 points from 11. Club Tijuana have won one of their last five; Puebla have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Santos Laguna v Club QueretaroSun 18 Oct, 00:00
Our model makes Santos Laguna 30%, the draw 28% and Club Queretaro 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Club Queretaro to win at 43%. Santos Laguna are 14th on 13 points from 11; Club Queretaro are 3rd on 20 points from 10. Santos Laguna have won four of their last five; Club Queretaro are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Guadalajara Chivas v Tigres UANLSun 18 Oct, 00:07
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas 51%, the draw 25% and Tigres UANL 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Guadalajara Chivas to win at 51%. Guadalajara Chivas are 4th on 19 points from 11; Tigres UANL are 13th on 13 points from 11. Guadalajara Chivas have won two of their last five; Tigres UANL have won two of their last five. Tigres UANL have won two of the sides' last four meetings.
Leon v Club AmericaSun 18 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Leon 29%, the draw 25% and Club America 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Club America to win at 45%. Leon are 5th on 18 points from 11; Club America are 1st on 21 points from 10. Leon have won two of their last five; Club America have won two of their last five. Club America have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Toluca v Atletico San LuisSun 18 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Toluca 62%, the draw 20% and Atletico San Luis 18%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Toluca to win at 62%. Toluca are 2nd on 20 points from 11; Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11. Toluca have won two of their last five; Atletico San Luis have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Cruz Azul v FC JuarezSun 18 Oct, 04:10
Our model makes Cruz Azul 68%, the draw 17% and FC Juarez 14%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Cruz Azul to win at 68%. Cruz Azul are 7th on 17 points from 11; FC Juarez are 18th on 4 points from 11. Cruz Azul have won two of their last five; FC Juarez have won one of their last five. Cruz Azul have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Monterrey v CF PachucaMon 19 Oct, 02:00
Our model makes Monterrey 37%, the draw 27% and CF Pachuca 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Monterrey are 10th on 14 points from 10; CF Pachuca are 11th on 13 points from 11. Monterrey have won one of their last five; CF Pachuca have won two of their last five. CF Pachuca have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published one pick on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
Liga MX9Prediction
1 more member pick on these matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.