Toluca v 
Atletico San Luis
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 68%
- Over 3.5
- 46%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Toluca 62%
- Likely score
- 2-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.29 – 1.19
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketMembers
Every market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Toluca favoured against Atletico San Luis
Our model makes Toluca 62% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 20% and Atletico San Luis at 18%. The goal projection is 2.29 for Toluca against 1.19 for Atletico San Luis — a commanding edge to Toluca on expected output. A combined 3.49 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Toluca is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 38% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 10%
- 1-1 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 3-1 7%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| Toluca | Atletico San Luis | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 6-2-3 | W-D-L | 3-3-5 |
| 1.82 | Pts / game | 1.09 |
| 2.27 | Goals for / game | 1.36 |
| 1.36 | Goals against / game | 1.82 |
| 73% | Over 2.5 | 73% |
| 64% | BTTS | 64% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 3-0-2 | Home record | 1-2-3 |
| 3-2-1 | Away record | 2-1-2 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Toluca · Atletico San Luis
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 19.7 | Shots | 13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 8.0 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 9.5 |
| 56 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.30 | xG | 0.78 |
| 3 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Conceded
| 19.7 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 8.7 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 44 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.81 | xG | 2.53 |
| 3 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Form comparison
| Toluca | Metric | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 1.80 (better) |
| 1.63 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.96 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.75 (better) | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 17.50 (better) | Total shots | 11.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.50 (better) | Corners | 2.00 |
| 56.0 (better) | Possession % | 48.2 |
| 446 | Passes | 462 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.75 | Fouls | 9.80 (better) |
| 2.75 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.75 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Toluca wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Atletico San Luis wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 100%
- Toluca v Atletico San Luis1–12026-04-13
- Atletico San Luis v Toluca1–32025-08-30
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 21 | Club America won 2 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 20 | Toluca won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 | Club Queretaro won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 | Guadalajara Chivas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 | Leon won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 | Atlas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 | Cruz Azul won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 | Puebla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 14 | Monterrey won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 | CF Pachuca won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 | Tigres UANL won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 | Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 | Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 | Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 | Necaxa won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 | FC Juarez won 1 of the last 5 |