Fiorentina v 
Juventus
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- Juventus 50%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.09 – 1.66
Advised bets
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Juventus +0.25
Why this price?
Back Juventus +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.63 with BetVictor — Juventus starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 72% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 66%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.46. The offered 1.63 implies only 61%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Fiorentina 1.09, Juventus 1.66.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Juventus favoured against Fiorentina
Our model makes Fiorentina 25% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Juventus at 50%. The goal projection is 1.09 for Fiorentina against 1.66 for Juventus — a substantial edge to Juventus on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 10%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-2 9%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Fiorentina | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 2-2-6 | W-D-L | 5-2-3 |
| 0.80 | Pts / game | 1.70 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.30 |
| 2.30 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 90% | Over 2.5 | 20% |
| 80% | BTTS | 30% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 0-2-3 | Home record | 3-1-1 |
| 2-0-3 | Away record | 2-1-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fiorentina · Juventus
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.2 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 7.6 |
| 2.83 | Cards | 1.14 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 49 | Possession % | 59 |
| 1.43 | xG | 1.21 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 14.8 | Shots | 10.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 2.9 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 8.6 |
| 52 | Possession % | 41 |
| 1.59 | xG | 0.76 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Fiorentina | Metric | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.17 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.46 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 (better) | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 16.40 (better) | Total shots | 14.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.60 | Corners | 6.20 (better) |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 57.2 (better) |
| 424 | Passes | 530 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.40 (better) | Fouls | 12.00 |
| 1.80 (better) | Offsides | 3.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.80 | Yellow cards | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Fiorentina wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Juventus wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 50%
- Juventus v Fiorentina0–22026-05-17
- Fiorentina v Juventus1–12025-11-22
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +16 | 28 | Lazio won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | Inter won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +18 | 24 | AS Roma won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 23 | Como won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 21 | AC Milan won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 20 | Frosinone won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 | Juventus won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Bologna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 16 | Cagliari won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Napoli | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 14 | Napoli won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 | Torino won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Genoa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 | Genoa won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 | Lecce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 | Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 | Parma won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 | Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 | Monza won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -13 | 6 | Venezia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 | Udinese won 0 of the last 5 |