Predicted Edge

Belgium

Belgian Pro League predictions

Every Belgian Pro League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Belgian Pro League page.

4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Gent, 70% against Kortrijk at home; the most evenly balanced game is St. Truiden v Zulte Waregem (St. Truiden 53%, draw 23%, Zulte Waregem 24%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Club Brugge KV v Anderlecht, at 3.70.

Every match, one prediction

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Belgian Pro League4Most likely prediction

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Match by match

Club Brugge KV v AnderlechtSun 8 Nov, 12:30

Our model makes Club Brugge KV 66%, the draw 18% and Anderlecht 16%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Club Brugge KV to win at 66%. Club Brugge KV are 1st on 27 points from 10; Anderlecht are 5th on 19 points from 10. Club Brugge KV have won all of their last five; Anderlecht have won four of their last five. Club Brugge KV have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

Gent v KortrijkSun 8 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Gent 70%, the draw 20% and Kortrijk 10%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (15%), 2.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 39%. The headline call is Gent to win at 70%. Gent are 4th on 25 points from 10; Kortrijk are 18th on 4 points from 10. Gent have won three of their last five; Kortrijk have won one of their last five.

Union St. Gilloise v GenkSun 8 Nov, 17:30

Our model makes Union St. Gilloise 64%, the draw 21% and Genk 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Union St. Gilloise to win at 64%. Union St. Gilloise are 3rd on 26 points from 10; Genk are 6th on 15 points from 10. Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Genk have won two of their last five. Union St. Gilloise have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

St. Truiden v Zulte WaregemSun 8 Nov, 18:15

Our model makes St. Truiden 53%, the draw 23% and Zulte Waregem 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.14 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. St. Truiden are 15th on 8 points from 10; Zulte Waregem are 11th on 11 points from 10. St. Truiden have lost all of their last five; Zulte Waregem have lost all of their last five. St. Truiden have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

The numbers this season

Belgian Pro League has averaged 3.26 goals a game over 92 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 66% of them and both sides scoring in 49%. Home sides have won 51% of matches, 17% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Belgian Pro League predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Belgian Pro League predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Belgian Pro League?
51% of matches this season, over 92 played, with 17% drawn and 32% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.26 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 66%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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