Belgian Pro League · Review

Belgian Pro League matchweek 9 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Belgian Pro League result from matchweek 9 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 25 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Belgian Pro League, matchweek 9 (24–25 October 2026), is complete: eight matches, 37 goals (4.63 a game), six home wins, two draws and no away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in eight of the eight and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in KVC Westerlo v SK Beveren (4–4), which it had at 22%; the one it rated most likely was Union St. Gilloise's win in Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge (5–2), at 72%.

After the round, Gent lead on 25 points, one point clear of Club Brugge KV, with Union St. Gilloise third on 23. The bottom three are OH Leuven (6), Cercle Brugge (3), Kortrijk (3).

Match by match

Antwerp 3–0 CharleroiSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Antwerp 27%, the draw 26% and Charleroi 48%, with Charleroi favoured; it put Antwerp winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.45–1.97: Charleroi created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Charleroi to win at 48%, did not come in.

OH Leuven 2–2 Lommel UnitedSat 24 Oct, 17:15

Before kick-off the model had OH Leuven 25%, the draw 28% and Lommel United 46%, with Lommel United favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.43–0.97: OH Leuven created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 58%, did not come in.

KVC Westerlo 4–4 SK BeverenSat 24 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had KVC Westerlo 57%, the draw 22% and SK Beveren 22%, with KVC Westerlo favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.41–2.08: KVC Westerlo created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, came in.

RAAL La Louvière 3–0 Zulte WaregemSat 24 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had RAAL La Louvière 27%, the draw 25% and Zulte Waregem 48%, with Zulte Waregem favoured; it put RAAL La Louvière winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.56–0.82: RAAL La Louvière created the better chances. The headline call, Zulte Waregem to win at 48%, did not come in.

Genk 2–1 Standard LiegeSun 25 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Genk 46%, the draw 26% and Standard Liege 28%, so Genk winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.32–1.48: Genk created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in. Pick published: Standard Liege 0 at 3.45 — lost.

Club Brugge KV 3–2 St. TruidenSun 25 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Club Brugge KV 64%, the draw 19% and St. Truiden 18%, so Club Brugge KV winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.67–1.81: Club Brugge KV created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, came in.

Gent 4–0 AnderlechtSun 25 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Gent 41%, the draw 29% and Anderlecht 30%, so Gent winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.89–1.55: Gent created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 60%, did not come in.

Union St. Gilloise 5–2 Cercle BruggeSun 25 Oct, 18:15

Before kick-off the model had Union St. Gilloise 72%, the draw 17% and Cercle Brugge 11%, so Union St. Gilloise winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 2.02–1.23: Union St. Gilloise created the better chances. The headline call, Union St. Gilloise to win at 72%, came in.

The numbers this season

Belgian Pro League has averaged 3.19 goals a game over 80 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 65% of them and both sides scoring in 45%. Home sides have won 51% of matches, 19% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.