Belgian Pro League · Review

Belgian Pro League matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Belgian Pro League result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 1 Nov 2026, updated 2 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Belgian Pro League, matchweek 10 (30 October – 1 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 32 goals (3.56 a game), five home wins, one draw and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in six of the nine and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was OH Leuven's win in St. Truiden v OH Leuven (1–2), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Union St. Gilloise's win in SK Beveren v Union St. Gilloise (1–2), at 71%.

After the round, Club Brugge KV lead on 27 points, one point clear of Union St. Gilloise, with Gent third on 25. The bottom three are RAAL La Louvière (7), Cercle Brugge (6), Kortrijk (4).

Match by match

Zulte Waregem 2–4 Club Brugge KVFri 30 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Zulte Waregem 19%, the draw 20% and Club Brugge KV 61%, so Club Brugge KV winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.60–1.40: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Club Brugge KV to win at 61%, came in. Pick published: Club Brugge KV +0.25 at 1.35 — won.

KV Mechelen 1–0 GenkSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had KV Mechelen 28%, the draw 24% and Genk 48%, with Genk favoured; it put KV Mechelen winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.31–1.65: Genk created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Genk to win at 48%, did not come in.

Standard Liege 1–1 KortrijkSat 31 Oct, 17:15

Before kick-off the model had Standard Liege 63%, the draw 22% and Kortrijk 14%, with Standard Liege favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.41–1.58: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Standard Liege to win at 63%, did not come in.

Anderlecht 4–1 KVC WesterloSat 31 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Anderlecht 48%, the draw 24% and KVC Westerlo 28%, so Anderlecht winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.63–0.77: Anderlecht created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, came in. Pick published: KVC Westerlo 0 at 3.82 — lost.

SK Beveren 1–2 Union St. GilloiseSat 31 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had SK Beveren 11%, the draw 18% and Union St. Gilloise 71%, so Union St. Gilloise winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-2. Expected goals were 0.47–0.69: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Union St. Gilloise to win at 71%, came in.

Cercle Brugge 2–1 AntwerpSun 1 Nov, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Cercle Brugge 44%, the draw 24% and Antwerp 32%, so Cercle Brugge winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.71–2.36: Antwerp created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 65%, came in.

St. Truiden 1–2 OH LeuvenSun 1 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had St. Truiden 56%, the draw 24% and OH Leuven 20%, with St. Truiden favoured; it put OH Leuven winning at 20%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.81–1.58: St. Truiden created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, St. Truiden to win at 56%, did not come in.

Lommel United 2–0 GentSun 1 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Lommel United 37%, the draw 30% and Gent 33%, so Lommel United winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.34–1.34: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 61%, came in. Pick published: Under 1.5 at 3.90 — lost.

Charleroi 5–2 RAAL La LouvièreSun 1 Nov, 18:15

Before kick-off the model had Charleroi 55%, the draw 24% and RAAL La Louvière 21%, so Charleroi winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.19–0.97: Charleroi created the better chances. The headline call, Charleroi to win at 55%, came in.

The numbers this season

Belgian Pro League has averaged 3.22 goals a game over 89 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 65% of them and both sides scoring in 48%. Home sides have won 52% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.