Charleroi won 4 of the last 5WLWWW4th5–2RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5LWLLW16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Charleroi
RAAL La Louvière
15
Shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
4
Corners
5
16
Fouls
12
4
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
3
538
Passes
389
57%
Possession %
43%
2.19
xG
0.97
55%
24%
21%
1 · CharleroiXRAAL La Louvière · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Charleroi 55%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.04
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.3%
2.21
1.95 William Hill
51.3%
-6.0
Match result
Charleroi
55.4%
1.81
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-7.1
Match result
Draw
23.9%
4.18
4.50 Dafabet
22.2%
+1.7
Match result
RAAL La Louvière
20.7%
4.82
5.90 Betano
16.9%
+3.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.5%
1.27
1.28 Betano
78.1%
+0.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.5%
4.66
4.10 BetVictor
24.4%
-2.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.6%
1.83
1.85 Bet365
54.1%
+0.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.4%
2.20
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-2.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.3%
3.10
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+1.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.7%
1.48
1.39 Betano
71.9%
-4.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.7%
1.83
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+3.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Charleroi favoured against RAAL La Louvière
Our model makes Charleroi 55% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 24% and RAAL La Louvière at 21%. The goal projection is 1.83 for Charleroi against 1.04 for RAAL La Louvière — a substantial edge to Charleroi on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Charleroi
Metric
RAAL La Louvière
1.20
Goals scored
2.40 (better)
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
1.66 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.02
—
Big chances *
—
5.75 (better)
Shots on target
4.33
14.75 (better)
Total shots
13.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.75
Corners
5.67 (better)
56.8 (better)
Possession %
44.7
510 (better)
Passes
389
—
Tackles
—
12.25 (better)
Fouls
17.00
2.00 (better)
Offsides
2.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.25 (better)
Yellow cards
3.33
0.00 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Charleroi v 
RAAL La Louvière