St. Truiden v OH Leuven

15th1–214th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
St. Truiden		OH Leuven
26	Shots	21
7	Shots on target	4
15	Corners	9
12	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
0	Offsides	2
561	Passes	306
64%	Possession %	36%
3.81	xG	1.58

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: St. Truiden 56%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 0.98

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	St. Truiden	56.4%	1.77	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-1.7
Match result	Draw	24.0%	4.16	4.30 Betano	23.3%	+0.8
Match result	OH Leuven	19.6%	5.11	4.65 Betano	21.5%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.2%	1.29	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.8%	4.38	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	+2.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.7%	1.90	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.3%	2.12	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.5%	3.28	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-7.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.5%	1.44	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.7%	1.90	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-7.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.3%	2.11	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	+2.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

St. Truiden favoured against OH Leuven

Our model makes St. Truiden 56% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 24% and OH Leuven at 20%. The goal projection is 1.81 for St. Truiden against 0.98 for OH Leuven — a substantial edge to St. Truiden on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for St. Truiden and OH Leuven
St. Truiden		OH Leuven
10	Played	10
2-2-6	W-D-L	2-3-5
0.80	Pts / game	0.90
1.80	Goals for / game	1.00
2.10	Goals against / game	1.70
70%	Over 2.5	60%
60%	BTTS	60%
10%	Clean sheets	10%
30%	Failed to score	30%
1-1-3	Home record	1-2-2
1-1-3	Away record	1-1-3
L5	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. St. Truiden · OH Leuven

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0	Shots	19.0
5.0	Shots on target	4.0
8.3	Corners	6.7
3.25	Cards	2.67
11.8	Fouls	13.3
57	Possession %	39
2.26	xG	2.11
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	19.0
5.0	Shots on target	4.3
4.5	Corners	9.7
1.50	Cards	2.00
9.8	Fouls	11.7
43	Possession %	61
1.72	xG	2.02
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
St. Truiden	Metric	OH Leuven
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.79 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.00
	Big chances
5.50 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
18.00 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	3.50
58.0 (better)	Possession %	44.8
541 (better)	Passes	388
	Tackles
14.75	Fouls	12.75 (better)
1.00	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

St. Truiden wins: 2
Draws: 0
OH Leuven wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

St. Truiden v OH Leuven1–22026-11-01
St. Truiden v OH Leuven1–02026-01-18
OH Leuven v St. Truiden1–22025-11-23

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	+9	24	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5
8	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
9	KVC Westerlo	10	4	2	4	0	14	KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	-10	10	SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5