Lommel United v Gent

8th2–03rd

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lommel United		Gent
16	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	5
10	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
0	Offsides	3
601	Passes	417
59%	Possession %	41%
1.34	xG	1.34

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Lommel United 37%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.08

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 1.5

3.90BetVictor · fair 3.52 · qualifies at 3.66+ · 0.93u

Why this price?

Back under 1.5 goals at 3.90 with BetVictor — 1 goal or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 25%; we judge it at 28%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.52. The offered 3.90 implies only 26%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lommel United 1.15, Gent 1.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lommel United	36.6%	2.73	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+15.6
Match result	Draw	30.2%	3.31	3.85 Betano	26.0%	+4.2
Match result	Gent	33.2%	3.01	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	-22.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.1%	1.51	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-13.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.9%	2.95	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	+10.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	38.7%	2.58	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-16.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	61.3%	1.63	2.10 Betano	47.6%	+13.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.8%	5.32	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-14.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.2%	1.23	1.44 Betano	69.4%	+11.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.9%	2.18	1.73 William Hill	57.8%	-11.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.1%	1.85	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+8.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lommel United v Gent: too close to call

Our model makes Lommel United 37% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Gent at 33%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Lommel United against 1.08 for Gent — almost nothing to Lommel United on expected output. A combined 2.24 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 11%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Lommel United and Gent
Lommel United		Gent
10	Played	10
4-3-3	W-D-L	8-1-1
1.50	Pts / game	2.50
1.30	Goals for / game	1.90
1.10	Goals against / game	0.60
40%	Over 2.5	50%
30%	BTTS	40%
40%	Clean sheets	50%
40%	Failed to score	10%
2-1-2	Home record	5-0-0
2-2-1	Away record	3-1-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lommel United · Gent

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	11.7
6.0	Shots on target	6.0
4.7	Corners	3.7
1.00	Cards	2.00
9.0	Fouls	9.7
51	Possession %	43
1.27	xG	1.58
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	16.0
4.3	Shots on target	5.0
8.0	Corners	3.7
2.33	Cards	2.33
10.7	Fouls	12.0
49	Possession %	57
1.83	xG	1.21
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lommel United	Metric	Gent
1.60	Goals scored	1.60
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
0.98	Expected goals (xG)	1.63 (better)
	Big chances
3.67	Shots on target	4.50 (better)
13.33	Total shots	13.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.33	Corners	5.75 (better)
49.3	Possession %	49.5 (better)
441	Passes	495 (better)
	Tackles
9.67 (better)	Fouls	10.00
1.33	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lommel United wins: 1
Draws: 0
Gent wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Lommel United v Gent2–02026-11-01

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	+9	24	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5
8	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
9	KVC Westerlo	10	4	2	4	0	14	KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	-10	10	SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5